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All eyes focus on Colts-Pats game

Peyton Manning of the Colts looks to pass against the Rams at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, Indiana on Oct. 17. Indianapolis will face New England tomorrow. PHOTO: AFP

Tony Dungy knew the topic of conversation would be Monday night's meeting between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots.

"You mean this week's game of the century?" Dungy said, chuckling at the hype during a telephone conversation on Thursday.

But Dungy would not argue that this game lacks significance. Rarely does the NFL's only unbeaten team face the defending Super Bowl champion. And history shows that if the Colts (7-0) beat the Patriots (4-3) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass., the odds of reaching the Super Bowl will swing in their favor.

Since 1978, when the league went to a 16-game schedule, only seven teams have reached the halfway point 8-0. Five of them reached the Super Bowl, with four winning the title.

The last team to reach 8-0 was the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs, who made it to 9-0 before losing at Cincinnati, 24-19, in November. The Chiefs faded down the stretch that year, losing four of their last eight, including their opening-round playoff game, when they were upset at home by the Colts, 38-31.

However, every team that has gone 8-0 has secured home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, which is often a key to post-season success.

That home-field advantage could be crucial for the Colts, because their home games are played indoors at the RCA Dome. Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning is 0-7 in his career at New England, including last January's 20-3 playoff loss. The Colts had the league's top-rated offense last season, averaging 32.6 points a game. But in 25-degree weather, the Patriots' defense made the end zone off limits, like bouncers setting up a velvet rope in front of a nightclub. The Colts did not record a single first down rushing, and they were shut out in the second half.

Dungy said the Colts can win anywhere this year, particularly with their improved defense, but he wants to finish with the top record in the AFC to secure a bye week for the playoffs, a luxury he has not had in three previous seasons with Indianapolis.

"Even last year, when we were 12-4, we didn't get the bye week, and we had to beat Denver in the playoffs before we ever got to New England," Dungy said. "That was a disadvantage for us, and an advantage for them. This start we've had has allowed us to get a jump toward getting that first-round bye, which is a real goal."

The Super Bowl is the Colts' ultimate goal, which is why Dungy does not want his team overreacting to the outcome Monday, win or lose. Yet there are several factors that make this game intriguing.

Start with New England's recent dominance in the series. The Patriots have won six straight over the Colts, and quarterback Tom Brady is 6-0 in his career against Indianapolis.

That kind of dominance is hard to forget, although the Colts insist it is ancient history. But even if Dungy and his players are not suffering from Patriots paranoia, they have not been able to convince many outsiders that New England does not hold a psychological edge.

"I don't think there's anything I can say that would convince people otherwise, if that's what they believe," Dungy said. "I look at it like this: New England has beaten us, but they've beaten a lot of other teams as well. That's why they've won three Super Bowls. It's not just us. They've been a little better than us. Are they still better than us this year? That remains to be seen."

It is premature to discuss the possibility of an undefeated season for the Colts, equaling the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who went 17-0, capping a 14-0 regular season by winning the Super Bowl. The 1998 Denver Broncos made the most recent run at perfection, reaching 13-0 before losing, 20-16, to the New York Giants in a December road game. Led by John Elway, Denver finished 14-2 that season and won the Super Bowl, 34-19, over Atlanta. The 1985 Chicago Bears, also Super Bowl winners, reached 12-0 before suffering their only loss, 38-24 to Miami, in a Monday night game in December.

The Colts have played only two teams that currently have winning records. But the rest of their schedule is more challenging, including road games against New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Seattle and home games against Pittsburgh and San Diego.

Dungy is not looking that far ahead, but he is pointing toward Monday night. Not often do NFL teams reach 8-0, and those that do usually accomplish something special.

"This will really tell the tale of what kind of team we are, what kind of team we have, starting on Monday," Manning said on Thursday, speaking to reporters about the second half of the season. "This is why you play in the NFL, to be in games like this."

Philadelphia (4-3) at Washington (4-3)

The Eagles seem to be falling apart. In a drubbing from the Broncos, their offense couldn't protect Donovan McNabb and their defense gave up 564 yards. Their running game has disappeared, they have called pass plays 77 percent of the time and now McNabb and Terrell Owens, their best receiver, are injured. After a shutout by the Giants, the Redskins' quarterback, Mark Brunell, said, "If we can win this one against a very good football team, we will be back on track. If not, we're going to be in a hole."

Oakland (3-4) at Kansas City (4-3)

The Raiders have won three of their last four games. They beat the Titans despite only 24 minutes of possession, prompting receiver Jerry Porter to say, "We'll take it anyway we can get it."

But the Raiders' secondary is beaten up, and the Chiefs are dangerous passing, as witness Trent Green's 347 yards in losing to the Chargers. Priest Holmes, the Chiefs' key runner, has a mild concussion, but his team faces a friendly schedule.

Next up are the Raiders, the Bills and the Texans, all losing teams.

Cincinnati (6-2) at Baltimore (2-5)

Carson Palmer's three-touchdown passing and a strong rushing defense helped the Bengals beat the Packers. The Bengals intercepted five passes, the first time a team has done that three times in a season since the 1970 Chiefs. The Ravens lost to the Steelers on Monday night on a field goal with 1 minute 36 seconds left.

The Ravens' offense is struggling, with quarterback Kyle Boller's toe still injured and Jamal Lewis's running not what it was.

Coach Brian Billick said, "We're going to have to get on a heck of a run."

Carolina (5-2) at Tampa Bay (5-2)

The Panthers, a Super Bowl team two years ago and 7-9 last year, have won four in a row. In their rout of the Vikings, Jake Delhomme passed for 341 yards and Steve Smith caught 11 passes for 201 yards. In the Buccaneers' loss to the 49ers, Chris Simms, starting for the injured Brian Griese, posted good passing numbers, but also had two interceptions, a key fumble and five sacks. His coach, Jon Gruden, said, "In fairness to Chris, it's the first time he's had live snaps since the Houston preseason game."

Atlanta (5-2) at Miami (3-4)

The Falcons are one of five National Conference teams at 5-2. If Michael Vick passes erratically, they can turn to Warrick Dunn, a tricky runner. The Dolphins beat the Saints as Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 40 carries for 188 yards.

Detroit (3-4) at Minnesota (2-5)

Daunte Culpepper, the Vikings' gifted but underperforming quarterback, is gone for perhaps a year after tearing three ligaments in his right knee. The veteran Brad Johnson replaces him. Joey Harrington replaces Jeff Garcia, the Lions' gimpy quarterback.

Houston (1-6) at Jacksonville (4-3)

The Texans, who beat the Browns last week for their first victory of the season, still rank last in the NFL in offense and next to last in defense. After the Jaguars lost to the Lions, receiver Jimmy Smith said, "We're not as good as we think we are."

San Diego (4-4) at Jets (2-5)

In beating the Chiefs last week, Drew Brees of the Chargers passed for 324 yards and Antonio Gates caught three touchdowns passes. The Jets are hurting, and cornerback David Barrett said, "It seems like we lost our way from last year to this year."

Tennessee (2-6) at Cleveland (2-5)

The young Titans have lost five of their last six games, including last Sunday to the Raiders, and their rookies are making rookie mistakes. The Browns have lost three in a row, the latest to the Texans, and they haven't scored an offensive touchdown in three weeks.

Chicago (4-3) at New Orleans (2-6)

The Bears have beaten their last three opponents, including the Lions last week, and lead the NFC North. The Saints have lost four in a row, bowing to the Dolphins last week, and as coach Jim Haslett said, "Right now, we are a bad football team."

Giants (5-2) at San Francisco (2-5)

The Giants shut out the Redskins, but they were also 5-2 last year and lost their next eight games. The 49ers' offense is anemic, and injuries to the quarterbacks Alex Smith and Ken Dorsey means Cody Pickett, a fourth-stringer two weeks ago, will start.

Seattle (5-2) at Arizona (2-5)

After Josh McCown started the last four games, playing two well and two not so well, Kurt Warner will return as the Cardinals' quarterback. The Cardinals lost last week, and their defense will have trouble trying to stop the running of Shaun Alexander.

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Green Bay (1-6)

The Steelers struggled past the Bills on Monday night and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger strained his right knee. Now he is sidelined for a week or two after arthroscopic surgery. Charlie Batch will start against the struggling Brett Favre.

Byes: Buffalo, Dallas, Denver and St. Louis.
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