The nature of the post-election government has become clearer over the past two days. President Chen Shui-bian (
The ROC Constitution (Article 3 of the Additional Amendments) unambiguously states: "The premier shall be appointed by the president." Most certainly, even should the DPP suffer an unexpected disaster in the election, President Chen will not allow the opposition to take the initiative.
The nature of the coalition will depend, in the first instance, on the internal politics of the KMT. Will party Chairman Lien Chan (
Defections
Furthermore, while the DPP will gain seats -- for example, Chiayi County's independent Chang Hua-kuan (
Should Lien resign, whether or not the KMT joins with the DPP in a "grand coalition" will depend on the new leadership and the battle between those who emphasize the KMT's "Chinese" identification and those who believe the only future for the KMT is to push its roots firmly into Taiwanese soil. This contest will be between KMT's the younger pro-China leaders, such as Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and former foreign minister Jason Hu (胡志強), and Taiwanese leaders, such as legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
Such a "grand coalition" would have the numbers to implement substantial constitutional reform. But the DPP -- as a disciplined legislative party -- would want assurances from the new KMT leader that it would be able to carry out its side of the bargain on crucial votes.
Controlling the legislature
If Lien should survive in office or if the new KMT leadership were to prove insufficiently reformist, the likelihood of a DPP-PFP (People First Party) coalition would be large. On current estimates, such a coalition would have sufficient numbers (say 80 DPP, 10 Taiwan Solidarity Union [TSU] and 35 PFP legislators) to control the legislature. Furthermore, the PFP would likely be discipline enough to implement the coalition's program.
There has been little pre-election discussion of a potential DPP-PFP coalition because both parties fear they would lose votes owing to the highly emotional feelings their supporters have about independence and unification, respectively. Yet, both parties want to abolish "black gold" (黑金) politics, despite PFP Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) earlier intimate involvement in KMT "black gold" campaigns, and both parties, neither of which has much money, would love to investigate and "clean up" the KMT's enormous financial assets. Their legislative majority would be sufficient for such an initiative.
With a legislative majority, a DPP-PFP coalition could engage in significant reform without constitutional revision. While major electoral reform, such as halving the number of legislators, would require a constitutional amendment, many electoral reforms remain in the purview of the Central Electoral Commission, which can decide, for example, to redraw electoral lines so that no district has more than five seats.
At least two factors favor a DPP-PFP coalition over a DPP-KMT coalition. First, coalitions with a smaller majority are cheaper to form in that the government has to "pay off" fewer coalition members. Second, coalitions with smaller majorities tend to have better discipline than those with large majorities and, in any case, the PFP is likely to display better discipline in the legislature than the KMT.
A potential DPP-PFP grouping would face two major difficulties. The first is, that while differences in cross-strait policies are not large, rhetorical differences would have to be put aside. Secondly, the coalition would bring together the two main likely candidates for the 2004 presidential race.
James Soong drew his electoral strength last year from his populist leadership as governor of Taiwan. Whether he can sustain such popularity without the resources of the government remains problematic. Thus, he has incentive to cooperate with government. President Chen Shui-bian (
Should either the grand DPP-KMT grouping or the tighter DPP-PFP coalition not prove feasible, President Chen will have to bring in smaller groups of people. One quite feasible example would be the eight aboriginal legislators. After the 1995 legislative election, the DPP candidate for speaker, Shih Ming-te (施明德), came within one vote of winning even though his coalition of DPP and New Party legislators was still short a few votes. Most analysts believe KMT aboriginal legislators defected to the opposition. After subsequent bargaining, the KMT government agreed to establish a Council of Aboriginal Affairs.
Aboriginal voters
Taiwan's aboriginal communities remain quite deprived by Taiwanese standards. Yet, aboriginal leaders have consistently urged the promul-gation of measures which remain unimplemented. Although aboriginal voters have yet to elect a DPP legislator (they consistently vote KMT and now PFP and remain unlikely to change this year, despite a "star" DPP aboriginal candidate), I believe the following program could bring the eight aboriginal legislators into the "national stability coalition" at relatively little cost to the DPP.
First, aboriginal legislators express deep resentment because, they say, DPP legislators refer to them as fan-a (
Second, aboriginal leaders are greatly concerned about proposals to combine the Council of Aboriginal Affairs with either the Council of Hakka Affairs or the Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission.
Aboriginal leaders see such "efficiency" proposals as a step backward and evidence of a lack of concern about aboriginal issues. The DPP could shelve the "efficiency" proposals and promise to retain and strengthen the Council of Aboriginal Affairs and insure that Aboriginal programs are created and strengthened.
Land rights
Third, Taiwan requires land rights legislation which recognizes customary aboriginal land claims. The importance of this initiative to aborigines can't be overstated.
Other areas requiring consideration include aboriginal employment, welfare, and possibly a "basic law" (基本法) or "treaty" between Taiwan's indigenous people and the country's Taiwanese majority.
To people familiar with the difficulties common among indigenous peoples around the world, none of these issues are remarkable. Furthermore, their implementation would be relatively inexpensive in terms of Taiwan's government budget.
Yet, their impact on Taiwan's reputation for social justice would be great. Such "win-win" arrangements could go far toward history judging President Chen Shui-bian's "cross-party coalition for national stability" well.
Bruce Jacobs is professor of Asian languages and studies and director of the Taiwan Research Unit at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. He is contributing daily comment for the Taipei Times during the election campaign.
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