As it marks its 15th anniversary today, the ruling DPP faces its greatest-ever challenge: to consolidate its faltering rule as the year-end legislative election approaches.
"The DPP is under great pressure since it doesn't want to lose the right to form the next Cabinet [in February], in the event that the party fails to become the biggest party in the legislature," says Lawrence Gao (
"It's not likely, however, that the DPP will, in such a short period of time, win an overall majority. Indeed, it is likely to take two more legislative elections before that happens," says DPP legislator Chen Chung-shin (
TAIPEI TIMES FILE PHOTO
Expressing his optimism, however, Chen says he believes that the DPP should be able to secure a significant proportion of the legislative seats because the major opposition parties have not outshone the ruling DPP in terms of their performance in the legislature.
"Supporters down in the south are convinced that the opposition parties have done all they can to obstruct the DPP's rule. That explains why the DPP hasn't ruled very successfully," Chen says, adding that the party's traditional supporters would not turn their backs on the DPP.
Having to govern during a global economic downturn, painful yet unsuccessful attempts at political reform and a series of natural disasters, the DPP government has faced plenty of adversity -- even in addition to the usual hostility of the legislature.
With a tough road behind and still ahead of them, the party has carefully been considering all possible electoral strategies in order to secure an election victory.
Gao believes that the DPP should first assure the public that the party is capable of handling economic and financial affairs. To that end he has been promoting a proposal to integrate the economic resolutions reached at the Economic Development Advisory Conference into the party's platform for the elections.
A decision to relax the "no haste, be patient" policy on investment in China was one such resolution and this has triggered controversy over whether the DPP, traditionally the pro-independence party and one whose administration to date has been dogged by vociferous hostility from China, should embrace the idea.
As a result of Gao's efforts, however, the party's National Congress tomorrow is likely to discuss and, indeed, pass the resolution. Gao says the economic resolution, already endorsed by DPP Chairman Frank Hsieh (
"Addressing Taiwan's economy under the framework of globalization should help the DPP to shrug off accusations that it rules in accordance with a rigid ideology [instead of progressive policies]," Gao says.
Observers, however, say that the DPP has yet to find its niche in the new, divided political landscape, where two political blocs have taken shape -- with former KMT forces trying to unite and DPP factions also striving to cooperate with one another.
"The DPP's strategic goal should be to reduce the legislative seats of the KMT, its major rival," says Philip Yang (
Yang says that, even if the DPP only outnumbers the KMT by one seat, the ruling party's influence in the new legislature will be greatly increased even if the People First Party picks up seats from the KMT, positioning itself as a future threat.
Echoing Yang's view, Joseph Wu (
"An estimated 10 to 15 percent of the electorate, which is usually bribed into casting their votes, will not go to the polls if they do not receive any money this time. So, what the DPP's anti-vote-buying campaign can achieve is a reduced turnout that will prevent some opposition candidates from getting elected," Wu says.
Election strategist and a former member of the party's policy committee, Lin Feng-fei (
"Moreover, now that the government has taken control of those grassroots financial institutions, vote-buying channels should have been disconnected to a certain degree of effectiveness," Lin says.
He therefore argues that the DPP should target its traditional supporters, keep pro-independence hard-liners from supporting the newly-established Taiwan Solidarity Union and rely on increased votes from what he calls "watermelon effect voters (西瓜派)" -- voters who he says are inclined to vote for the ruling party, whichever party that happens to be.
Lin also says that he expects that candidates will place a heavy emphasis on the management of public relations since the forthcoming election will be a "saturated" one with a very large number of candidates.
"Shaking hands with voters in person will be considered [by candidates] more important than launching advertising campaigns," Lin says.
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