With President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) declaration of the conditional "five no's" policy toward China during his inaugural address, Taiwan has freed itself from any possible blame for causing cross-strait tension, passing it instead to China, local scholars said yesterday.
"With the five no's manifesto, Chen has passed the ball to China. China will have to take all the blame and consequences if it uses force against Taiwan. From now on, it is we, not the Chinese, who have the initiative to act according to what the other side says and does," said Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), a political analyst at the Institute for National Policy Research.
"The precondition for the five no's is that China does not use force against Taiwan. China loves to set a lot of preconditions in its negotiations with other countries, such as those seen during its normalization of relationships with the US," Lo said.
"With the five no's statement, Chen makes it hard for the Chinese government to find any excuse to use force against Taiwan. He has instead passed any possible blame for causing cross-strait tension to China," he said.
Ruan Ming (阮銘), a Chinese political analyst now in Taiwan, said Beijing found it difficult to respond to Chen's inauguration speech. This was evident in the response from the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, which came out in a mere two hours, he said.
"The State Department's quick response was apparently aimed at providing a framework for other public organs to follow in commenting on Chen's inauguration speech," Ruan said, who had been a secretary to former Chinese premier Hu Yaobang (胡耀邦).
Chang Jung-kung (張榮恭), director of the KMT's mainland affairs department, was pessimistic about the effects of Chen's inaugural address with respect to the cross-strait portions.
"I am not sure that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is as calm as it appears to be. I don't agree with President Chen's pre-inauguration remarks that the cross-strait situation will see a surprise turn in favor of both sides after he takes office," Chang said.
Besides the ambiguous treatment of "one China," Chang also criticized Chen for what he said was an over-simplification of the cross-strait issues.
"Chen said in his speech that cross-strait relations will improve on the basis of a consensus having been reached between the two sides. But he did specify what consensus he was referring to," Chang said.
"Chen's speech creates a sense of optimism among the people. But I wonder whether this optimism will be followed by a deep sense of anxiety over when the bright picture will become a reality," he said.
Yen Wan-chin (顏萬進), director of the DPP's China affairs department, admitted that President Chen did not offer any concrete ideas for the improvement of cross-strait relations in his speech.
"What Chen was trying to do was to avoid all sorts of risks which might arise out of his remarks on cross-strait issues. It is true that he did not bring up any concrete ideas for the two sides of the Strait to work on. But what really matters is the grand picture he has envisioned for people on the two sides," Yen said.
"Aside from that, Chen's cross-strait remarks at the inauguration ceremony were quite sufficient to guarantee peace in the Taiwan Strait for some time."
Yen said that the use of force refers to invasion of any territory of Taiwan by China, as well as any intention to subject Taiwan to China's political will.
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