It’s been a long time since an incoming Federal Reserve leader had it this good.
Jerome Powell was sworn in on Monday last week as the 16th chairman of the Fed, on the day after his 65th birthday. He’s inheriting a US economy in its third-longest expansion on record, with unemployment and inflation near historically low levels.
Global growth has picked up, jobs gains continue at a robust monthly pace, business investment has risen in recent months and Congress has just passed a set of tax cuts.
Photo: AFP
照片：法新社
“Global growth feels more powerfully coordinated than it has in a long time and inflation remains low,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. and a former Chicago Fed staffer.
Still, the new Fed chief likely has trouble headed his way as he tries to keep the economy from overheating or getting cold. A US stock market that’s roared to record highs in recent months is waking up to the risks: The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 666 points on Feb. 2, the biggest drop since June 2016.
It’s not just that inflation has languished below target. A deeper concern is that economists don’t completely understand why. The nation’s unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent, less than half its crisis-era peak. That’s well below where most experts believed it would begin to provoke higher wages and inflation.
This complicates Powell’s task in contemplating how fast to raise interest rates as the economy gains momentum. In December, the median projection from Fed officials called for three quarter-point interest rate increases in 2018, but more could be needed.
(BLOOMBERG)
美國聯邦準備理事會主席已經很久沒有在新上任時遇到這般榮景了。
傑洛姆‧鮑爾於上週一宣誓就任聯準會第十六任主席，前一天正是他六十五歲生日。他所接手的美國經濟，是失業率和通貨膨脹率都接近歷史低點的第三長時期。
全球經濟成長速度加快，每月新增就業繼續保持強勁的增長態勢，近幾個月來商業投資增加，美國國會也剛通過了一系列減稅政策。
芝加哥北方信託首席經濟學家及芝加哥聯邦準備銀行前職員卡爾‧譚能邦表示：「全球經濟增長的協調性比以往更強，通貨膨脹率仍舊偏低。」
儘管如此，這位聯準會新任主席也可能會因試圖阻止經濟過熱或變冷而陷入困境。近幾個月飆升至創紀錄高點的美國股市正遭到當頭棒嚇而清醒過來：二月二日，道瓊工業平均指數重挫六六六點，為二○一六年六月以來最大跌幅。
問題並不僅是通貨膨脹率低於目標，更深層的擔憂是，連經濟學家都不能完全理解其背後原因為何。美國的全國失業率已下降到百分之四‧一，還不到金融危機期間峰值的一半，遠低於大多數專家認為會引發更高工資和通貨膨脹的情況。
這使得鮑爾的任務更加複雜。隨著經濟成長獲得動能，鮑爾的任務就是決定升息的步調。聯準會官員十二月的預期中值顯示，二○一八年會有三次升息一碼，但可能還需要更多。
(台北時報林俐凱譯)
Follow up
課後練習
1. Central banks use interest rates as a key tool for managing their respective economies, true or false?
2. Why do central banks closely monitor inflation and unemployment rates when setting interest rates?
3. Why to central banks typically cut interest rates when inflation in an economy falls below a given minimum level (usually 2 percent)? What effect will this have on the economy?
4. During a period of steady economic growth, central banks usually increase interest rates to keep inflation under control, true or false?
(Edward Jones, Taipei Times)
★ Bilingual Story is a fictionalized account. 雙語故事部分內容純屬虛構。 “Get in. It’s pouring.” She slid into the back seat, drenched and silent. “Tissues?” the driver asked. “No, thank you,” she said. Water beaded off her hair, ran from her coat, and made a small lake on the vinyl. She kept her head down, long black strands clinging to her face. “Where to?” She gave an address. “Funeral?” he asked as they slipped into the Xinhai Tunnel, rain fading to a hollow drum. She glanced up, puzzled. “No. Why?” “Crematorium’s about the only thing here.” He caught her eyes in the mirror.
Have you ever dreamed of hiking Taiwan’s majestic Mt. Jade or visiting Peru’s breathtaking Machu Picchu? These adventures sound amazing, but there’s something you should know about first: “altitude sickness.” This condition strikes when you climb to a higher elevation too quickly. The higher you go, the thinner the air becomes, making it harder for your body to absorb oxygen. The symptoms usually begin within hours of reaching high altitudes — about 2,500 meters or higher. You might experience headaches, dizziness, nausea, shortness of breath, or extreme fatigue. These symptoms can last for several days. The severity of altitude sickness varies
A: Any fun events happening this weekend? B: Boyband Energy’s concerts and Taiwan’s first major male dance revue have both sparked anticipation recently. A: Energy staged a comeback last year — 15 years after they disbanded — and they’re now more popular than ever. B: Their megahit “Friday Night” even won Song of the Year at the Golden Melody Awards. A: To pay tribute to the Queen of Pop Madonna, they added her choreography of 16 continuous jump squats to their music video, prompting a “16-squat challenge” that went viral across Taiwan. Do you wanna try it out? A:
Week 24 詞法—名詞 1. 人們一致稱讚他。 ˇ People praised him unanimously. χ Peoples praised him unanimously. 註：people 作「人們」（＝ men and women）解時，是單數形式，作複數用。peoples 是「多個民族」、「各國人民」，不是「多數人」，如 the peoples of Asia（亞洲各民族、亞洲人民）。 2. 她為他做了一條新褲子。 ˇ She made him a new pair of trousers. χ She made him a new trousers. 註：scissors 和 trousers 等名詞習慣用複數形式。「一把剪刀」或「一條褲子」正統說法為 a pair of scissors 或 a pair of trousers。 3. 我們提前兩年完成了第二個五年計劃的主要目標。 ˇ We fulfilled the major objectives of the Second Five-Year Plan two years ahead. χ We fulfilled the major objectives of the Second Five-Years Plan two years ahead. 註：five-year 作為一個複合形容詞，year 不用複數。又如 a twelve-year-old boy、a five-dollar note、a one-hundred-meter race 等，也是一樣。 4. 他們決定買一輛新車。 ˇ They have made up their minds to buy a new car. χ
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