A surge of popularity for a freshly minted opposition party is making Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to call a snap election look riskier than initially thought.
Abe yesterday dissolved the Japanese House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the National Diet, setting the stage for an Oct. 22 vote.
The Party of Hope, launched earlier this week by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, might not dethrone Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), but analysts have said it could put a dent in the LDP’s majority.
Photo: Kyodo News via AP
A major setback could derail Abe’s presumed hope to extend his rule for three more years at a party leadership meeting next year.
Minutes after the dissolution, Abe made a fiery speech to party members, saying that he is seeking a public mandate on his tough diplomatic and defense policies to deal with escalating threats from North Korea, and that party members would have to relay his message to win voter support during the campaign.
“This election is about how we protect Japan, the people’s lives and peaceful daily life,” Abe said. “The election is about the future of our children.”
Abe’s dissolution of the House is widely seen as an attempt to reconsolidate his hold on power within the LDP after a series of scandals and missteps earlier this year. A big enough victory could help ensure his re-election as party leader in September next year.
The move is not without risks, but analysts have said the timing might be better now than later.
The Democratic Party, the largest opposition group, is in disarray and the sudden election gives the Party of Hope little time to organize candidates and a campaign strategy.
However, media polls have shown that the new party is off to a respectable start.
Jeff Kingston, a professor at Temple University, Japan Campus in Tokyo, called Koike’s new party a game changer.
“I think it is really bad news for Abe,” Kingston said. “She doesn’t actually have to win, but she has to inflict a bloody nose on Abe... If her party does better than expected, expect the long knives to come out in the LDP, and Abe could be ushered to the exit.”
Koike at a news conference rejected speculation that she might run for the legislature.
“I will stay in the city and put my energy to lead Tokyo’s preparations ahead of the upcoming Olympics and Paralympics,” Koike said.
Still, a relatively good showing by her party could allow it to influence Abe on policies such as constitutional change, an issue both politicians have an interest in, Tokyo-based International Christian University professor Stephen Nagy said.
He said that working in Abe’s favor are the LDP’s nationwide electoral organization and his handling of North Korea, which has sent two missiles over Japan in recent tests.
“Another missile test would likely put him in the limelight further, casting a shadow on the Party of Hope’s policy credentials,” Nagy said.
House members all stood up and chanted banzai three times in a dissolution ritual, then rushed out of the assembly hall.
The less-powerful Japanese House of Councilors will not be up for election, but remain closed until the legislature is reconvened after the vote.
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