CIA Director John Brennan was to tell the US Congress yesterday that Islamic State (IS) militants are training and attempting to deploy operatives for further attacks in the West, and will rely more on guerrilla-style tactics to compensate for territorial losses in Iraq and Syria.
In remarks prepared for the US Senate Intelligence Committee, Brennan says the Islamic State group has been working to build an apparatus to direct and inspire attacks against its foreign enemies, as in the attacks in Paris and Brussels — ones the CIA believes were directed by the group’s leaders.
“ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant] has a large cadre of Western fighters who could potentially serve as operatives for attacks in the West,” Brennan said, using another acronym for the group.
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He said the group is probably working to smuggle them into countries, perhaps among refugee flows or through legitimate means of travel.
Brennan noted the group’s call for followers to conduct so-called lone-wolf attacks in their home countries, describing the attack in Orlando, Florida, a “heinous act of wanton violence” and an “assault on the values of openness and tolerance” that define the US as a nation.
He said the group is gradually cultivating its various branches into an interconnected network.
The branch in Libya is likely the most advanced and most dangerous, but the group is also trying to increase its influence in Africa, Brennan said.
The Islamic State branch in the Sinai has become the “most active and capable terrorist group in Egypt,” attacking the Egyptian military and government targets in addition to foreigners and tourists, such as the downing of a Russian passenger jet in October last year.
Other branches have struggled to gain traction, Brennan said.
“The Yemen branch, for instance, has been riven with factionalism, and the Afghanistan-Pakistan branch has struggled to maintain its cohesion, in part because of competition with the Taliban,” he said.
He called the Islamic State a “formidable adversary,” but said the US-led coalition has made progress combating the group, which has had to surrender large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, and has lost some of its leaders in airstrikes.
The group has struggled to replenish its ranks of fighters, because fewer of them are traveling to Syria and others have defected, he said.
“The group appears to be a long way from realizing the vision that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi laid out when he declared the caliphate two years ago in Mosul,” Iraq, he said.
He said the group’s ability to raise money has also been curtailed, although the group still continues to generate at least tens of millions of US dollars in revenue each month, mostly from taxation and from sales of crude oil.
“Unfortunately, despite all our progress against ISIL on the battlefield and in the financial realm, our efforts have not reduced the group’s terrorism capability and global reach,” he said.
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