The US government is close to announcing that it will sell about US$1 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan, its first new sale in more than four years. The sale is likely to cause a rift in Washington’s relationship with Beijing.
US President Barack Obama’s administration has not decided when to notify the US Congress about the pending sale, one US official said.
The administration is bracing for a strong negative reaction from the Chinese Communist Party, which has opposed US arms sales to Taiwan for decades.
Photo: Tsai Tsung-hsien, Taipei Times
Owing to that, the sale could be formally announced after the middle of next month, following the upcoming climate change conference in Paris, officials said.
Also, the US government wants to allow a sufficient interval before Taiwan’s elections in mid-January.
On Capitol Hill in the US, leaders in both parties have been prodding the administration to follow through with the sale, despite the risks of tension with China.
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking Democrat Ben Cardin and Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain wrote to Obama last week to press him on the issue.
“America’s long-standing commitment to Taiwan is a multifaceted and bipartisan effort that includes many components, all of which must be exercised as we seek to support and safeguard the ability of the people of Taiwan to determine their own future,” they wrote. “One critical component is US military assistance and arms sales to Taiwan.”
The Chinese military has been modernizing at a rapid pace, the senators said.
Although the Obama administration has sold about US$12 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan since coming to power, the last sale was more than four years ago, which constitutes the longest gap between sales since the Taiwan Relations Act passed Congress in 1979.
The details of the arms package the US will offer Taiwan have not been set, but US officials said that Washington are likely to offer Taipei transfers of missile frigates, about a dozen AAV-7 amphibious assault vehicles, one replacement AH-64 Apache helicopter and munitions including Stinger, Javelin and TOW missiles.
In Obama’s first term, Congress pushed the administration to sell Taiwan newer versions of the F-16 fighter planes, even holding up the nominations of top US Department of State officials to make the point.
The administration never agreed, instead offering Taiwan upgrades to its existing F-16 fleet.
This time around, fighter planes are not on the menu at all.
A US Department of State official told me the administration does not comment on arms sales for foreign governments until after notifying Congress.
If and when the sale is announced, the Chinese government is expected to react harshly.
“The Taiwan Question concerns China’s core interests and remains the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations. The Chinese side is firmly opposed to the arms sales by the US to Taiwan,” Chinese Minstry of Foreign Afairs spokesperson Qin Gang (秦剛) said in December last year.
The Chinese government could cancel some upcoming military exchanges with the US, as it has in the past, or China could try to punish US defense firms that are involved with the arms sales through sanctions, although the involvement of such firms in Chinese government business is limited.
The Project 2049 Institute, an Asia-focused think tank in Washington, did a review of Chinese reactions to US arms sales to Taiwan in 2012, following the last major sale. It found that the Chinese retaliatory measures are temporary and the two sides always go back to business as usual.
“Past behavior indicates that China is unlikely to challenge any fundamental US interests in response to any future releases of significant military articles or services to Taiwan,” the report states. “The US therefore retains considerable freedom of action in abiding by the Taiwan Relations Act.”
The Taiwan Relations Act and the “six assurances” made to Taiwan in 1982 by former US president Ronald Reagan mandate, among other things, that the US will never set a date for ending US arms sales to Taiwan and will never consult China in advance before selling arms to Taiwan.
The law also says the US will provide Taiwan arms “to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”
Some experts say the administration is failing to uphold that commitment out of concern that more robust sales could disrupt US-China relations.
“Given the unabated buildup opposite Taiwan on the part of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, it lacks credibility that we are keeping pace with Taiwan’s needs,” said Randy Schriver, who served as a US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs in former US president George W. Bush’s administration.
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