Efforts to ease tensions in the South China Sea will dominate this week’s Asian security dialogue in Cambodia, analysts say, while the US will be at pains to stress it seeks cooperation with China.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton joins the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh on Thursday, a few days after foreign ministers from across Southeast Asia open proceedings, with counterparts from China, Japan, the Koreas and Australia also set to attend.
Friction over competing claims in the South China Sea promises to be the hot button issue as the 10-member association holds talks today before opening meetings to include all 27 invited countries. Manila is leading a push for ASEAN to unite to persuade China to accept a “code of conduct” in the sea, where tensions have flared recently, with both Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing of aggressive behavior. China prefers to deal with the claimants individually as it seeks to extend its writ over the resource-rich and strategically important area.
“This is make-or-break time for ASEAN members,” said Carl Thayer, a politics professor and Southeast Asia security expert at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “They have set this month as their self-imposed deadline to come up with a draft code of conduct. There could be progress.”
Taiwan, China and ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, home to vital shipping lanes and believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits.
China recently angered Vietnam by inviting bids for exploration of oil blocks in contested waters, sparking protests in Hanoi earlier this month, while Beijing and Manila are locked in a tense standoff over the Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island, 黃岩島), which is also claimed by Taiwan.
At their last summit in April, ASEAN countries were divided over when to include Beijing in discussions about the draft code of conduct, leading to a “big disagreement,” Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said at the time.
However, the bloc is still hoping to reach an agreement with China by the end of the year, 10 years after first committing to creating a legally binding framework for resolving disputes.
US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell said late last month he saw momentum on the issue after noticing “an increase in diplomacy” between ASEAN and China on a potential code of conduct.
The US recently expanded military relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, and the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will be “the elephant in the room” this week, said Ernie Bower of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Amid concerns that the US’ renewed focus on Asia could antagonize China ahead of a leadership transition this year, Clinton is expected “to downplay US-China friction,” Bower said.
Instead, she will “be at pains to advance US-China cooperation as a main foreign policy objective,” Thayer said.
With that in mind, Clinton may be less outspoken on the South China Sea issue than she was at a regional summit in 2010, when she angered Beijing by saying the US had a “national interest” in open access to the sea.
“Don’t look for fireworks from Secretary Clinton in Phnom Penh,” Bower said. “Look for quiet strength, behind the scenes support for ASEAN positions ... but nothing overt or muscle-heavy from the US.”