The support gap between Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has widened in the past week, an online prediction market showed.
The Web site xfuture.org, an electronic exchange at the Center for Prediction Markets at National Chengchi University, said yesterday that People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Ma’s political futures prices on its site were tampered with through “outside interference” after Soong completed his registration of candidacy with the Central Election Commission (CEC) on Nov. 24.
The system had been repaired by 4pm the next day, and as of Thursday, it predicted that Tsai would receive 49.9 percent of all votes cast in next month’s election, Ma would get 41.9 percent and Soong would take 11.7 percent.
Prior to the three candidates’ registration with the CEC last week, the site showed Tsai leading Ma by 5 percentage points.
Noting that the total value of all three candidates’ support rate, as of Thursday, is nearing 100, the site said figures suggested the market is approaching equilibrium.
On the possibility of being elected, the exchange on Thursday gave Tsai 51 percent, Ma 37.1 percent and Soong 12.5 percent, with Ma’s success rate falling by 4 percentage points since Nov. 25, while Soong’s rate increased by 4 percentage points.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of future events. Virtual bids may be made on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
‘ABUSE OF POWER’: Lee Chun-yi allegedly used a Control Yuan vehicle to transport his dog to a pet grooming salon and take his wife to restaurants, media reports said Control Yuan Secretary-General Lee Chun-yi (李俊俋) resigned on Sunday night, admitting that he had misused a government vehicle, as reported by the media. Control Yuan Vice President Lee Hung-chun (李鴻鈞) yesterday apologized to the public over the issue. The watchdog body would follow up on similar accusations made by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and would investigate the alleged misuse of government vehicles by three other Control Yuan members: Su Li-chiung (蘇麗瓊), Lin Yu-jung (林郁容) and Wang Jung-chang (王榮璋), Lee Hung-chun said. Lee Chun-yi in a statement apologized for using a Control Yuan vehicle to transport his dog to a
Taiwan yesterday denied Chinese allegations that its military was behind a cyberattack on a technology company in Guangzhou, after city authorities issued warrants for 20 suspects. The Guangzhou Municipal Public Security Bureau earlier yesterday issued warrants for 20 people it identified as members of the Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command (ICEFCOM). The bureau alleged they were behind a May 20 cyberattack targeting the backend system of a self-service facility at the company. “ICEFCOM, under Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, directed the illegal attack,” the warrant says. The bureau placed a bounty of 10,000 yuan (US$1,392) on each of the 20 people named in
The High Court yesterday found a New Taipei City woman guilty of charges related to helping Beijing secure surrender agreements from military service members. Lee Huei-hsin (李慧馨) was sentenced to six years and eight months in prison for breaching the National Security Act (國家安全法), making illegal compacts with government employees and bribery, the court said. The verdict is final. Lee, the manager of a temple in the city’s Lujhou District (蘆洲), was accused of arranging for eight service members to make surrender pledges to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in exchange for money, the court said. The pledges, which required them to provide identification
INDO-PACIFIC REGION: Royal Navy ships exercise the right of freedom of navigation, including in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, the UK’s Tony Radakin told a summit Freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region is as important as it is in the English Channel, British Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Tony Radakin said at a summit in Singapore on Saturday. The remark came as the British Royal Navy’s flagship aircraft carrier, the HMS Prince of Wales, is on an eight-month deployment to the Indo-Pacific region as head of an international carrier strike group. “Upholding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and with it, the principles of the freedom of navigation, in this part of the world matters to us just as it matters in the
RSS