The support gap between Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has widened in the past week, an online prediction market showed.
The Web site xfuture.org, an electronic exchange at the Center for Prediction Markets at National Chengchi University, said yesterday that People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Ma’s political futures prices on its site were tampered with through “outside interference” after Soong completed his registration of candidacy with the Central Election Commission (CEC) on Nov. 24.
The system had been repaired by 4pm the next day, and as of Thursday, it predicted that Tsai would receive 49.9 percent of all votes cast in next month’s election, Ma would get 41.9 percent and Soong would take 11.7 percent.
Prior to the three candidates’ registration with the CEC last week, the site showed Tsai leading Ma by 5 percentage points.
Noting that the total value of all three candidates’ support rate, as of Thursday, is nearing 100, the site said figures suggested the market is approaching equilibrium.
On the possibility of being elected, the exchange on Thursday gave Tsai 51 percent, Ma 37.1 percent and Soong 12.5 percent, with Ma’s success rate falling by 4 percentage points since Nov. 25, while Soong’s rate increased by 4 percentage points.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of future events. Virtual bids may be made on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
FALSE DOCUMENTS? Actor William Liao said he was ‘voluntarily cooperating’ with police after a suspect was accused of helping to produce false medical certificates Police yesterday questioned at least six entertainers amid allegations of evasion of compulsory military service, with Lee Chuan (李銓), a member of boy band Choc7 (超克7), and actor Daniel Chen (陳大天) among those summoned. The New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office in January launched an investigation into a group that was allegedly helping men dodge compulsory military service using falsified medical documents. Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) has been accused of being one of the group’s clients. As the investigation expanded, investigators at New Taipei City’s Yonghe Precinct said that other entertainers commissioned the group to obtain false documents. The main suspect, a man surnamed
The government is considering polices to increase rental subsidies for people living in social housing who get married and have children, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said yesterday. During an interview with the Plain Law Movement (法律白話文) podcast, Cho said that housing prices cannot be brought down overnight without affecting banks and mortgages. Therefore, the government is focusing on providing more aid for young people by taking 3 to 5 percent of urban renewal projects and zone expropriations and using that land for social housing, he said. Single people living in social housing who get married and become parents could obtain 50 percent more
DEMOGRAPHICS: Robotics is the most promising answer to looming labor woes, the long-term care system and national contingency response, an official said Taiwan is to launch a five-year plan to boost the robotics industry in a bid to address labor shortages stemming from a declining and aging population, the Executive Yuan said yesterday. The government approved the initiative, dubbed the Smart Robotics Industry Promotion Plan, via executive order, senior officials told a post-Cabinet meeting news conference in Taipei. Taiwan’s population decline would strain the economy and the nation’s ability to care for vulnerable and elderly people, said Peter Hong (洪樂文), who heads the National Science and Technology Council’s (NSTC) Department of Engineering and Technologies. Projections show that the proportion of Taiwanese 65 or older would
Democracies must remain united in the face of a shifting geopolitical landscape, former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) told the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on Tuesday, while emphasizing the importance of Taiwan’s security to the world. “Taiwan’s security is essential to regional stability and to defending democratic values amid mounting authoritarianism,” Tsai said at the annual forum in the Danish capital. Noting a “new geopolitical landscape” in which global trade and security face “uncertainty and unpredictability,” Tsai said that democracies must remain united and be more committed to building up resilience together in the face of challenges. Resilience “allows us to absorb shocks, adapt under
RSS