A US congressional commission is warning that as China continues to increase its military capabilities while Taiwan’s ability to defend itself is increasingly in question, “the peaceful resolution of the cross-strait situation is less likely.”
In its ninth annual report to the US Congress, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission wrote: “A gross military imbalance could also lead Beijing to resolve the cross-strait problem through the use of military force, possibly resulting in US military involvement.”
The report, scheduled to be released at a press conference yesterday in Washington, notes that cross-strait military relations “lack progress” and a continued standoff “tempers” any positive developments and “potentially endangers US interests in the region.”
Improvements in diplomatic and economic relations have reduced tensions across the Taiwan Strait, but the military balance is tipping more and more “to favor China.”
“Despite attempts to improve its capacity to defend the island against a potential attack from the mainland [sic], Taiwan continues publicly to call for additional US arms sales to augment its defense needs,” the report says.
Overall, the relationship across the Strait is improving, but at a slower pace than in the previous two years, it says.
A key reason for the slower pace is that neither China nor the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wants to see rapprochement used as a negative issue prior to the January elections, the report says.
The 13 commission members were appointed by Congress “to monitor, investigate and report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the US and the PRC [People’s Republic of China].”
According to the report, the Chinese Communist Party relies on economic growth and strict authoritarian rule to maintain control “over a factious and geographically vast nation.”
The report says the commission was told that Ma “has been under pressure from members of his party to prevent the Kuomintang [KMT] from gaining a reputation as excessively pro-China.”
However, the commission said that it had also been told that if Ma wins re-election, Beijing could take a harder line to “secure ... [Chinese] President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) legacy” before Hu steps down in the fall of next year.
The commission quoted Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, as saying that Beijing has avoided controversial cross-strait issues and that it “is not pushing the agenda” before the Jan. 14 presidential election, because it “understands that it has an interest in keeping President Ma and the KMT in power.”
China may even become lenient on issues such as participation in international organizations to demonstrate the effectiveness of Ma’s cross-strait policies, the commission said.
“Despite a third year of improved economic and diplomatic ties, military tension across the Taiwan Strait remains. Beijing’s public statements reflect an effort to downplay the threat that China poses to the island, but Taipei maintains that China’s military expansion and recent espionage controversies prove otherwise,” the report says. “Taiwan officials continue to emphasize that it is imperative that the island remain militarily competitive with China in order to maintain an equal hand in cross-strait negotiations.”
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
CHINA POLICY: At the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China, the two sides issued strong support for Taiwan and condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea The US and EU issued a joint statement on Wednesday supporting Taiwan’s international participation, notably omitting the “one China” policy in a departure from previous similar statements, following high-level talks on China and the Indo-Pacific region. The statement also urged China to show restraint in the Taiwan Strait. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and European External Action Service Secretary-General Stefano Sannino cochaired the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China and the sixth US-EU Indo-Pacific Consultations from Monday to Tuesday. Since the Indo-Pacific consultations were launched in 2021, references to the “one China” policy have appeared in every statement apart from the
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from