Recent analysis by the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute concludes that Beijing is likely to announce some policies that are favorable to Taiwan this year, including a variety of “political or economic perks,” to win hearts and minds in Taiwan.
Such measures, the report said, would also be part of efforts to encourage support for closer cross-strait relations and enhance the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) chances of staying in power in next year’s presidential election.
“China will continue to seek to promote economic integration with Taiwan, expand and deepen cross-strait exchanges and steadily promote economic development on both sides of the strait,” the report said. “In the more sensitive political field, Beijing will not rush the KMT on launching political dialogue in the near future, especially before the 2012 election.”
Written by Chang So-heng (張守珩), a visiting Taiwanese academic at the institute, the paper said Beijing recognizes that most people in Taiwan would prefer to perpetuate current conditions rather than move toward independence or unification with China.
“If political talks were to be held today, suspicions would arise and protests might erupt in Taiwan, including such measures as boycotting the congressional agenda and organizing street -demonstrations,” the paper said. “This would jeopardize reelection chances for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and imperil China’s preferred outcome.”
Chang, an associate research fellow at the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation, said some voters in Taiwan have worried that Ma’s economic policy is moving too close to Beijing and that Taiwan’s economy therefore might be absorbed by China.
“They fear that Ma’s ultimate intention may be unification with China and that he may undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty in negotiations with the more powerful China,” the report said.
“Facing these challenges, the KMT has reason to heed the apparent warning from the decline in its vote share in the [special municipality] elections and to try to improve its appeal as it prepares for an arduous battle against the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] in the 2012 presidential election,” it said.
Ma will be more careful and cautious, and no surprising actions should be expected from him this year, the paper said.
To “grapple” with a reinvigorated DPP, the paper said Ma would likely strive to persuade Washington to sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighter aircraft, try to advance talks with the US on free-trade issues and attempt to participate in the APEC meeting in Honolulu.
“Beijing hopes that the DPP will not come to power again soon. Beijing sees the DPP as too hard to deal with and too pro-independence,” the analysis said. “Before 2012, the Taiwan Strait is likely to remain peaceful and stable. Beijing perceives that the DPP’s power is growing again and likely understands that it should not ignore the party’s rising political clout.”
DEFENSE: The first set of three NASAMS that were previously purchased is expected to be delivered by the end of this year and deployed near the capital, sources said Taiwan plans to procure 28 more sets of M-142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as nine additional sets of National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), military sources said yesterday. Taiwan had previously purchased 29 HIMARS launchers from the US and received the first 11 last year. Once the planned purchases are completed and delivered, Taiwan would have 57 sets of HIMARS. The army has also increased the number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) purchased from 64 to 84, the sources added. Each HIMARS launch pod can carry six Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, capable of
GET TO SAFETY: Authorities were scrambling to evacuate nearly 700 people in Hualien County to prepare for overflow from a natural dam formed by a previous typhoon Typhoon Podul yesterday intensified and accelerated as it neared Taiwan, with the impact expected to be felt overnight, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, while the Directorate-General of Personnel Administration announced that schools and government offices in most areas of southern and eastern Taiwan would be closed today. The affected regions are Tainan, Kaohsiung and Chiayi City, and Yunlin, Chiayi, Pingtung, Hualien and Taitung counties, as well as the outlying Penghu County. As of 10pm last night, the storm was about 370km east-southeast of Taitung County, moving west-northwest at 27kph, CWA data showed. With a radius of 120km, Podul is carrying maximum sustained
Tropical Storm Podul strengthened into a typhoon at 8pm yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, with a sea warning to be issued late last night or early this morning. As of 8pm, the typhoon was 1,020km east of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving west at 23kph. The storm carried maximum sustained winds of 119kph and gusts reaching 155kph, the CWA said. Based on the tropical storm’s trajectory, a land warning could be issued any time from midday today, it added. CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張竣堯) said Podul is a fast-moving storm that is forecast to bring its heaviest rainfall and strongest
TRAJECTORY: The severe tropical storm is predicted to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday and Thursday, and would influence the nation to varying degrees, a forecaster said The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said it would likely issue a sea warning for Tropical Storm Podul tomorrow morning and a land warning that evening at the earliest. CWA forecaster Lin Ting-yi (林定宜) said the severe tropical storm is predicted to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday and Thursday. As of 2pm yesterday, the storm was moving west at 21kph and packing sustained winds of 108kph and gusts of up to 136.8kph, the CWA said. Lin said that the tropical storm was about 1,710km east of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, with two possible trajectories over the next one
RSS