Recent analysis by the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute concludes that Beijing is likely to announce some policies that are favorable to Taiwan this year, including a variety of “political or economic perks,” to win hearts and minds in Taiwan.
Such measures, the report said, would also be part of efforts to encourage support for closer cross-strait relations and enhance the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) chances of staying in power in next year’s presidential election.
“China will continue to seek to promote economic integration with Taiwan, expand and deepen cross-strait exchanges and steadily promote economic development on both sides of the strait,” the report said. “In the more sensitive political field, Beijing will not rush the KMT on launching political dialogue in the near future, especially before the 2012 election.”
Written by Chang So-heng (張守珩), a visiting Taiwanese academic at the institute, the paper said Beijing recognizes that most people in Taiwan would prefer to perpetuate current conditions rather than move toward independence or unification with China.
“If political talks were to be held today, suspicions would arise and protests might erupt in Taiwan, including such measures as boycotting the congressional agenda and organizing street -demonstrations,” the paper said. “This would jeopardize reelection chances for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and imperil China’s preferred outcome.”
Chang, an associate research fellow at the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation, said some voters in Taiwan have worried that Ma’s economic policy is moving too close to Beijing and that Taiwan’s economy therefore might be absorbed by China.
“They fear that Ma’s ultimate intention may be unification with China and that he may undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty in negotiations with the more powerful China,” the report said.
“Facing these challenges, the KMT has reason to heed the apparent warning from the decline in its vote share in the [special municipality] elections and to try to improve its appeal as it prepares for an arduous battle against the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] in the 2012 presidential election,” it said.
Ma will be more careful and cautious, and no surprising actions should be expected from him this year, the paper said.
To “grapple” with a reinvigorated DPP, the paper said Ma would likely strive to persuade Washington to sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighter aircraft, try to advance talks with the US on free-trade issues and attempt to participate in the APEC meeting in Honolulu.
“Beijing hopes that the DPP will not come to power again soon. Beijing sees the DPP as too hard to deal with and too pro-independence,” the analysis said. “Before 2012, the Taiwan Strait is likely to remain peaceful and stable. Beijing perceives that the DPP’s power is growing again and likely understands that it should not ignore the party’s rising political clout.”
AGING: As of last month, people aged 65 or older accounted for 20.06 percent of the total population and the number of couples who got married fell by 18,685 from 2024 Taiwan has surpassed South Korea as the country least willing to have children, with an annual crude birthrate of 4.62 per 1,000 people, Ministry of the Interior data showed yesterday. The nation was previously ranked the second-lowest country in terms of total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime. However, South Korea’s fertility rate began to recover from 2023, with total fertility rate rising from 0.72 and estimated to reach 0.82 to 0.85 by last year, and the crude birthrate projected at 6.7 per 1,000 people. Japan’s crude birthrate was projected to fall below six,
Conflict with Taiwan could leave China with “massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, significant social unrest, and devastating sanctions,” a US think tank said in a report released on Monday. The German Marshall Fund released a report titled If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of “Minor Conflict” and “Major War” Scenarios. The report details the “massive” economic, military, social and international costs to China in the event of a minor conflict or major war with Taiwan, estimating that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could sustain losses of more than half of its active-duty ground forces, including 100,000 troops. Understanding Chinese
SELF-DEFENSE: Tokyo has accelerated its spending goal and its defense minister said the nation needs to discuss whether it should develop nuclear-powered submarines China is ramping up objections to what it sees as Japan’s desire to acquire nuclear weapons, despite Tokyo’s longstanding renunciation of such arms, deepening another fissure in the two neighbors’ increasingly tense ties. In what appears to be a concerted effort, China’s foreign and defense ministries issued statements on Thursday condemning alleged remilitarism efforts by Tokyo. The remarks came as two of the country’s top think tanks jointly issued a 29-page report framing actions by “right-wing forces” in Japan as posing a “serious threat” to world peace. While that report did not define “right-wing forces,” the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was
US President Donald Trump in an interview with the New York Times published on Thursday said that “it’s up to” Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) what China does on Taiwan, but that he would be “very unhappy” with a change in the “status quo.” “He [Xi] considers it to be a part of China, and that’s up to him what he’s going to be doing, but I’ve expressed to him that I would be very unhappy if he did that, and I don’t think he’ll do that. I hope he doesn’t do that,” Trump said. Trump made the comments in the context
RSS