The looming Cabinet reshuffle has helped boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) odds of winning re-election in 2012, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said yesterday.
The center said the likelihood of Ma winning the next presidential election rose to 63.2 percent, an increase of 11.4 percentage points from its Aug. 20 forecast, which was the lowest point since the center began tracking the issue in April.
The likelihood of Ma winning in 2012 in a two-way race dropped after Typhoon Morakot lashed the nation from Aug. 8, the center said, adding that it began to rise again after Aug. 21, when the government’s resettlement and reconstruction project began to show some results.
Although the presidential election is three years away, traders look into other variables when they made the bids, including Ma’s possible future rivals, the Democratic Progressive Party’s condition, the economic situation and cross-strait relations, center director Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) said.
Prediction markets are markets where payoffs are tied to unknown future events. The center makes predictions on a variety of issues, including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Tung said the odds of Ma winning re-election never dropped below 50 percent, indicating that although many people are unhappy with him, he is still the favored candidate.
The more vibrant the trading, the more accurate the prediction, Tung said, adding that the re-election issue had attracted 665,000 trading entries as of Tuesday.
The Presidential Office announced on Monday that Ma had appointed Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) to be the next premier, shortly after Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) announced he was stepping down, effective today, and that the rest of the Cabinet would resign as well.
Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) dismissed a report in the Chinese-language United Daily News yesterday that Liu had resigned because he was at odds with Ma over the scale of a Cabinet reshuffle.
The newspaper said while Liu preferred to reorganize part of the government, Ma accepted the KMT’s suggestion that a “large-scale” change would be better.
Wang said Ma and Liu had reached an agreement in the middle of last month that Liu would shoulder political responsibility for the typhoon’s aftermath early this month. They had not revealed their plan to avoid damaging the morale of Cabinet officials who were preoccupied with relief efforts, he said.
The United Daily News report also said that Ma had demanded that his former aide, Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp chief executive officer Ou Chin-der (歐晉德), replace Vice Premier Paul Chiu (邱正雄).
Wang said the idea of pairing Liu and Ou had never been raised and that Ma and Liu were good friends and colleagues. Ma and Liu had agreed on the announcement of the new premier and vice premier shortly after Liu announced his resignation, Wang said.
Ma asked Wu to be the next premier last Friday and asked KMT Vice Chairman and Taoyuan County Commissioner Eric Chu (朱立倫) to be vice premier on Saturday, Wang said. Ma then visited Liu at his home on Sunday to thank him for his efforts, he said.
Wang declined to confirm whether Ma had other candidates in mind for the two top spots, saying if he did, it was meaningless now.
The Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) reported that KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) had been touted as a candidate for premier, but “Ma’s clan” was against the idea because they feared it would limit Ma’s power.
Meanwhile, Wang confirmed Ma had asked Minister of the Interior Liao Liou-yi (廖了以) if he was interested in the post of Presidential Office secretary-general because incumbent Chan Chun-po (詹春柏) will succeed Wu Den-yih as KMT secretary-general.
National Security Council Secretary-General Su Chi (蘇起) will keep his job despite calls for his resignation, Wang said, and Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-General Kao Lang (高朗) will also stay on.
Taiwan is projected to lose a working-age population of about 6.67 million people in two waves of retirement in the coming years, as the nation confronts accelerating demographic decline and a shortage of younger workers to take their place, the Ministry of the Interior said. Taiwan experienced its largest baby boom between 1958 and 1966, when the population grew by 3.78 million, followed by a second surge of 2.89 million between 1976 and 1982, ministry data showed. In 2023, the first of those baby boom generations — those born in the late 1950s and early 1960s — began to enter retirement, triggering
ECONOMIC BOOST: Should the more than 23 million people eligible for the NT$10,000 handouts spend them the same way as in 2023, GDP could rise 0.5 percent, an official said Universal cash handouts of NT$10,000 (US$330) are to be disbursed late next month at the earliest — including to permanent residents and foreign residents married to Taiwanese — pending legislative approval, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday. The Executive Yuan yesterday approved the Special Act for Strengthening Economic, Social and National Security Resilience in Response to International Circumstances (因應國際情勢強化經濟社會及民生國安韌性特別條例). The NT$550 billion special budget includes NT$236 billion for the cash handouts, plus an additional NT$20 billion set aside as reserve funds, expected to be used to support industries. Handouts might begin one month after the bill is promulgated and would be completed within
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NO CHANGE: The TRA makes clear that the US does not consider the status of Taiwan to have been determined by WWII-era documents, a former AIT deputy director said The American Institute in Taiwan’s (AIT) comments that World War-II era documents do not determine Taiwan’s political status accurately conveyed the US’ stance, the US Department of State said. An AIT spokesperson on Saturday said that a Chinese official mischaracterized World War II-era documents as stating that Taiwan was ceded to the China. The remarks from the US’ de facto embassy in Taiwan drew criticism from the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation, whose director said the comments put Taiwan in danger. The Chinese-language United Daily News yesterday reported that a US State Department spokesperson confirmed the AIT’s position. They added that the US would continue to
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