The looming Cabinet reshuffle has helped boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) odds of winning re-election in 2012, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said yesterday.
The center said the likelihood of Ma winning the next presidential election rose to 63.2 percent, an increase of 11.4 percentage points from its Aug. 20 forecast, which was the lowest point since the center began tracking the issue in April.
The likelihood of Ma winning in 2012 in a two-way race dropped after Typhoon Morakot lashed the nation from Aug. 8, the center said, adding that it began to rise again after Aug. 21, when the government’s resettlement and reconstruction project began to show some results.
Although the presidential election is three years away, traders look into other variables when they made the bids, including Ma’s possible future rivals, the Democratic Progressive Party’s condition, the economic situation and cross-strait relations, center director Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) said.
Prediction markets are markets where payoffs are tied to unknown future events. The center makes predictions on a variety of issues, including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Tung said the odds of Ma winning re-election never dropped below 50 percent, indicating that although many people are unhappy with him, he is still the favored candidate.
The more vibrant the trading, the more accurate the prediction, Tung said, adding that the re-election issue had attracted 665,000 trading entries as of Tuesday.
The Presidential Office announced on Monday that Ma had appointed Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) to be the next premier, shortly after Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) announced he was stepping down, effective today, and that the rest of the Cabinet would resign as well.
Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) dismissed a report in the Chinese-language United Daily News yesterday that Liu had resigned because he was at odds with Ma over the scale of a Cabinet reshuffle.
The newspaper said while Liu preferred to reorganize part of the government, Ma accepted the KMT’s suggestion that a “large-scale” change would be better.
Wang said Ma and Liu had reached an agreement in the middle of last month that Liu would shoulder political responsibility for the typhoon’s aftermath early this month. They had not revealed their plan to avoid damaging the morale of Cabinet officials who were preoccupied with relief efforts, he said.
The United Daily News report also said that Ma had demanded that his former aide, Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp chief executive officer Ou Chin-der (歐晉德), replace Vice Premier Paul Chiu (邱正雄).
Wang said the idea of pairing Liu and Ou had never been raised and that Ma and Liu were good friends and colleagues. Ma and Liu had agreed on the announcement of the new premier and vice premier shortly after Liu announced his resignation, Wang said.
Ma asked Wu to be the next premier last Friday and asked KMT Vice Chairman and Taoyuan County Commissioner Eric Chu (朱立倫) to be vice premier on Saturday, Wang said. Ma then visited Liu at his home on Sunday to thank him for his efforts, he said.
Wang declined to confirm whether Ma had other candidates in mind for the two top spots, saying if he did, it was meaningless now.
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