The looming Cabinet reshuffle has helped boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) odds of winning re-election in 2012, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said yesterday.
The center said the likelihood of Ma winning the next presidential election rose to 63.2 percent, an increase of 11.4 percentage points from its Aug. 20 forecast, which was the lowest point since the center began tracking the issue in April.
The likelihood of Ma winning in 2012 in a two-way race dropped after Typhoon Morakot lashed the nation from Aug. 8, the center said, adding that it began to rise again after Aug. 21, when the government’s resettlement and reconstruction project began to show some results.
Although the presidential election is three years away, traders look into other variables when they made the bids, including Ma’s possible future rivals, the Democratic Progressive Party’s condition, the economic situation and cross-strait relations, center director Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) said.
Prediction markets are markets where payoffs are tied to unknown future events. The center makes predictions on a variety of issues, including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Tung said the odds of Ma winning re-election never dropped below 50 percent, indicating that although many people are unhappy with him, he is still the favored candidate.
The more vibrant the trading, the more accurate the prediction, Tung said, adding that the re-election issue had attracted 665,000 trading entries as of Tuesday.
The Presidential Office announced on Monday that Ma had appointed Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) to be the next premier, shortly after Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) announced he was stepping down, effective today, and that the rest of the Cabinet would resign as well.
Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) dismissed a report in the Chinese-language United Daily News yesterday that Liu had resigned because he was at odds with Ma over the scale of a Cabinet reshuffle.
The newspaper said while Liu preferred to reorganize part of the government, Ma accepted the KMT’s suggestion that a “large-scale” change would be better.
Wang said Ma and Liu had reached an agreement in the middle of last month that Liu would shoulder political responsibility for the typhoon’s aftermath early this month. They had not revealed their plan to avoid damaging the morale of Cabinet officials who were preoccupied with relief efforts, he said.
The United Daily News report also said that Ma had demanded that his former aide, Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp chief executive officer Ou Chin-der (歐晉德), replace Vice Premier Paul Chiu (邱正雄).
Wang said the idea of pairing Liu and Ou had never been raised and that Ma and Liu were good friends and colleagues. Ma and Liu had agreed on the announcement of the new premier and vice premier shortly after Liu announced his resignation, Wang said.
Ma asked Wu to be the next premier last Friday and asked KMT Vice Chairman and Taoyuan County Commissioner Eric Chu (朱立倫) to be vice premier on Saturday, Wang said. Ma then visited Liu at his home on Sunday to thank him for his efforts, he said.
Wang declined to confirm whether Ma had other candidates in mind for the two top spots, saying if he did, it was meaningless now.
The Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) reported that KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) had been touted as a candidate for premier, but “Ma’s clan” was against the idea because they feared it would limit Ma’s power.
Meanwhile, Wang confirmed Ma had asked Minister of the Interior Liao Liou-yi (廖了以) if he was interested in the post of Presidential Office secretary-general because incumbent Chan Chun-po (詹春柏) will succeed Wu Den-yih as KMT secretary-general.
National Security Council Secretary-General Su Chi (蘇起) will keep his job despite calls for his resignation, Wang said, and Presidential Office Deputy Secretary-General Kao Lang (高朗) will also stay on.
DEFENSE: The first set of three NASAMS that were previously purchased is expected to be delivered by the end of this year and deployed near the capital, sources said Taiwan plans to procure 28 more sets of M-142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as nine additional sets of National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), military sources said yesterday. Taiwan had previously purchased 29 HIMARS launchers from the US and received the first 11 last year. Once the planned purchases are completed and delivered, Taiwan would have 57 sets of HIMARS. The army has also increased the number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) purchased from 64 to 84, the sources added. Each HIMARS launch pod can carry six Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, capable of
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Tropical Storm Podul strengthened into a typhoon at 8pm yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, with a sea warning to be issued late last night or early this morning. As of 8pm, the typhoon was 1,020km east of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving west at 23kph. The storm carried maximum sustained winds of 119kph and gusts reaching 155kph, the CWA said. Based on the tropical storm’s trajectory, a land warning could be issued any time from midday today, it added. CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張竣堯) said Podul is a fast-moving storm that is forecast to bring its heaviest rainfall and strongest
TRAJECTORY: The severe tropical storm is predicted to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday and Thursday, and would influence the nation to varying degrees, a forecaster said The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said it would likely issue a sea warning for Tropical Storm Podul tomorrow morning and a land warning that evening at the earliest. CWA forecaster Lin Ting-yi (林定宜) said the severe tropical storm is predicted to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday and Thursday. As of 2pm yesterday, the storm was moving west at 21kph and packing sustained winds of 108kph and gusts of up to 136.8kph, the CWA said. Lin said that the tropical storm was about 1,710km east of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, with two possible trajectories over the next one
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