The fate of a number of US congressional initiatives dealing with US-Taiwan military relations will be decided starting this week as House and Senate committees thrash out an agreement on defense authorizations.
But Taiwan's lobbyists are worried that the Senate version of the bill, which is not as Taiwan-friendly, will prevail over the House's version.
The House version contains three provisions enhancing Washington's commitment to Taiwan's defense, while the Senate's version of the bill excludes those provisions but inserts a section dealing with China's military threat.
The House on Friday named more than 70 members from 15 committees as negotiators in the joint "conference" with the Senate that will determine the final form of the defense bill.
However, there are considerable doubts that any of the House provisions, which would affect Taiwan-US military ties more directly than the Senate version, will survive the conference.
While the staffers will work on the issues starting this week, congressmen will take over early next year when they return from their holiday recess. They are expected to finish their deliberations in February.
In previous years, the House has approved numerous pro-Taiwan provisions that Senate negotiators subsequently rejected.
Taiwan's lobbyists are very concerned that "history will repeat itself" this year, said Coen Blaauw, executive director of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs.
Senate reaction to the House's Taiwan sections has been "lukewarm," he said, adding that senators are adamant about "not rocking the cross-strait boat."
He said he "would not be surprised if the Taiwan provisions in the House bill do not survive."
The House in May approved its bill by a 390-39 vote. The Senate threw out that version and passed its own bill last month by unanimous consent. Last week, the House rejected that and called for the conference to iron out the differences.
One House provision would require high-level exchanges between US and Taiwanese military officers to "improve Taiwan's defenses against the People's Liberation Army."
These would focus on threat analysis, military doctrine, force planning, logistical support, intelligence collection and analysis and "operational tactics, techniques and procedures."
The exchanges, which would take place in both the US and Taiwan, would involve generals or other officers and Pentagon officials at the level of deputy assistant secretary of defense or higher and their Taiwanese counterparts.
Another provision would impose sanctions on European and other foreign firms that supply sensitive arms to China that could be used against Taiwanese and US forces in the event of military hostilities with China.
Under the provision, the Secretary of Defense would bar foreign firms and their affiliates who provide China with weapons on the US "munitions list" from selling military goods or services to the US for five years.
A third provision would require the National Defense University in the US to include Taiwan and China as destinations in its overseas field study program for newly promoted top US military officials.
The program facilitates interaction with foreign political and military leaders.
While rejecting those provisions, the Senate added a section urging the president to immediately establish a "coherent and comprehensive plan to address the emergence of China" militarily, diplomatically and economically.
The plan would include pressing the EU to maintain its embargo on arms sales to China, and "discourage foreign defense contractors from selling sensitive military-use technology or weapons systems to China."
The Senate version of the bill notes that "China is developing a leading-edge military with the objective of intimidating Taiwan and deterring United States involvement in the Strait," and says that China's recent military gains have "resulted in a dramatic shift in the cross-Strait military balance toward China."
It also cites the "Anti-Secession" Law that China's National People's Congress enacted last March.
Observers note that one of Congress' leading champions for Taiwan, House International Relations Committee chairman Henry Hyde, is on the conference committee.
Hyde's presence will be "encouraging," Blaauw says, adding that the negotiations will be "tough."
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