Though many military analysts say it will be years before China has the capability to successfully launch an assault against Taiwan, a invasion attempt could come far earlier than most observers believe.
That's the conclusion of a new article in a leading US military journal published yesterday. What's more, the attack could include a surprise missile blitz to "decapitate" Taiwan's military before Chinese troops are sent to occupy the island.
"Storm clouds are gathering in Asia, and war over the Taiwan Strait could come sooner rather than later," writes Richard Russell, a professor at the National Defense University, in the current issue of Parameters, the US Army War College's quarterly publication.
The aim, Russell says, would be to pre-empt the strengthening of Taiwan's defenses with US help and to counter what Beijing sees as "the steady march of Taiwan toward ... independence."
Beijing "probably has concluded" that Washington would come to Taiwan's aid in any cross-strait conflict -- especially after US President George W. Bush's commitment in April to do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan, he says.
"Beijing probably would conclude that it had more vital interests at stake in the conflict than the US, and would be more willing to run ... risks in settling the conflict once and for all," Russell says.
China would use surprise and deception to carry out the attack, Russell argues. Preparation for the attack could be disguised as a routine annual military exercise.
"The Chinese could seek to lull the Taiwanese and the Americans into a sense of political security ... [by engaging] in a steady stream of diplomatic activity to portray an image of satisfaction with the status quo," Russell writes.
"The Chinese could surround cross-strait visits and talks with great fanfare and publicly claim that these endeavors herald a new foundation for cross-strait relations.
"In such a political atmosphere, the `routine' exercising of Chinese naval assets and increased air, air defense and ground-force activity might attract no exceptional attention. ... However, these military exercises would represent the movement of the Chinese military to a wartime footing and the foundation for a massive military assault on Taiwan," he says.
The assault would start with a massive "bolt out of the blue" attack by hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles on key civilian and military targets -- especially the military's command, control, computer and intelligence system.
A handful of the missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads to "magnify the psychological blow," while other missiles aimed at Taiwan's air defenses and missile defense sites could be armed with chemical weapons to incapacitate those sites, allowing China's airborne troops to seize the air bases.
Amphibious attacks would serve as a diversion to shield the airlift of troops into Taiwan, Russell says.
While China's military might not be on the same footing with Taiwan's technologically, the sheer number of soldiers Beijing could mobilize would overwhelm Taiwan's forces, he says.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique