The loss of the Solomon Islands as a diplomatic ally on Monday was clearly a blow to Taiwan’s foreign affairs and the nation’s campaign to enlarge its international presence. China’s move was aimed at hurting Taiwan and its timing was significant. However, the move is also part of a larger chess game for regional supremacy that includes Taiwan’s natural allies, such as the US, Australia and Japan.
Announcing its decision to pre-emptively break off ties with the Solomon Islands, the government criticized Beijing for using dollar diplomacy as it continues to suppress Taiwan’s international space.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs added that the timing was part of a deliberate attempt to influence Taiwan’s presidential election — which it probably will, although which party would benefit from Beijing’s latest bullying tactics could be debated — and it accused China of orchestrating the situation so that the switch would occur before the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1.
Taiwan’s roster of diplomatic allies is now 16. This diminishes the nation’s presence globally, as Taiwan relies on its allies to give it a voice in the international forums that Beijing blocks it from participating in.
Of those 16, five — Palau, the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvali — are in the South Pacific. If Taipei is worried that the loss of the Solomon Islands would set off a domino effect leading to some, or all, of the others switching allegiance to Beijing, then other major players in the region have even more reasons to be concerned.
Last year, there were reports of China building military bases on Vanuatu. Beijing denied the reports, and little has come of them since. However, the very thought of it was a wake-up call for Canberra, which would have been faced with the prospect of having a Chinese military base in its backyard. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would have had the ability to project its military power much farther into the Western Pacific than it can at present.
The Solomon Islands were used by the US and Japan during World War II because of the potential for air bases and deep-water harbors. What has not yet come to pass in Vanuatu might still happen, and later be part of an extended network that includes the Solomon Islands. If Taiwan’s other allies in the region also switch, the PLA would have significant penetration into the “second island chain” — and “there goes the neighborhood.”
Beijing, then, is showing its hand, not only in its continued mission to hurt Taiwan and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration, but as part of its wider geopolitical strategy. This strategy includes enhanced military projection into the Western Pacific, threatening US-aligned regional players such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, and also frustrating Washington’s strategy of creating a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” which would give the US more leverage in the region.
The US needs to maintain its level of perceived influence and reliability in the region, as partners such as Australia are becoming increasingly alarmed at reports that the PLA is becoming capable of winning a limited regional engagement with the US. Other countries that are torn between China and the US might also side with Beijing.
No wonder US Vice President Mike Pence was so frustrated by the Solomon Islands’ decision that on Tuesday he canceled a meeting scheduled for later this month with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York City.
Beijing has made a smart move, but the game has other players — and it is time they upped their game.
Two sets of economic data released last week by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) have drawn mixed reactions from the public: One on the nation’s economic performance in the first quarter of the year and the other on Taiwan’s household wealth distribution in 2021. GDP growth for the first quarter was faster than expected, at 6.51 percent year-on-year, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.93 percent and higher than the agency’s February estimate of 5.92 percent. It was also the highest growth since the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded 8.07 percent, DGBAS data showed. The growth
At the same time as more than 30 military aircraft were detected near Taiwan — one of the highest daily incursions this year — with some flying as close as 37 nautical miles (69kms) from the northern city of Keelung, China announced a limited and selected relaxation of restrictions on Taiwanese agricultural exports and tourism, upon receiving a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) delegation led by KMT legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁). This demonstrates the two-faced gimmick of China’s “united front” strategy. Despite the strongest earthquake to hit the nation in 25 years striking Hualien on April 3, which caused
In the intricate ballet of geopolitics, names signify more than mere identification: They embody history, culture and sovereignty. The recent decision by China to refer to Arunachal Pradesh as “Tsang Nan” or South Tibet, and to rename Tibet as “Xizang,” is a strategic move that extends beyond cartography into the realm of diplomatic signaling. This op-ed explores the implications of these actions and India’s potential response. Names are potent symbols in international relations, encapsulating the essence of a nation’s stance on territorial disputes. China’s choice to rename regions within Indian territory is not merely a linguistic exercise, but a symbolic assertion
In the 2022 book Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, academics Hal Brands and Michael Beckley warned, against conventional wisdom, that it was not a rising China that the US and its allies had to fear, but a declining China. This is because “peaking powers” — nations at the peak of their relative power and staring over the precipice of decline — are particularly dangerous, as they might believe they only have a narrow window of opportunity to grab what they can before decline sets in, they said. The tailwinds that propelled China’s spectacular economic rise over the past