President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is the third successive president to work toward replacing military conscription with purely voluntary recruitment. The last batch of male conscripts was discharged on Dec. 26, ending the system of conscription that was in place for 67 years. That leaves Taiwan with 180,000 volunteer troops, plus a force of reservists with only four months of military training. Whether that could repel an invasion by China, whose forces are the third most powerful in the world, and ensure security across the Taiwan Strait, has been on the mind of our ally, the US, as well as observers in Taiwan.
Foreign observers question how effective voluntary recruitment can be in Taiwan. The American Institute in Taiwan and the US Department of State have repeatedly voiced their doubts, as have US think tanks, with some saying that Taiwan lacks a sense of crisis.
The government ended martial law in 1987 and began cross-strait exchanges. These decisions were in line with the US’ China policies at the time. The expectation was that after the two sides of the strait began to interact, China would “peacefully evolve” into a liberal democracy and the likelihood of war breaking out would fade, leaving no need to maintain such large armed forces.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party, competing for votes, gave in to young people’s reluctance to serve, repeatedly cutting the length of military service to the point where conscription might as well be replaced by recruitment.
However, while China has “opened up” to promote economic growth, it has also upgraded its military might. The sickly cat has grown into a tiger. The Chinese military has made repeated provocations in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea and South China Sea.
The idea of cross-strait peace has stagnated and China is even challenging US hegemony. Shaken from its dream, the US has set about countering the growing challenge from China. Apart from the looming trade war, the US has adopted a new Indo-Pacific strategy and promulgated laws, such as the Taiwan Travel Act and the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act. With a clear strategic purpose, the US has sent warships through the Taiwan Strait.
“The days of the US looking the other way are over,” US Vice President Mike Pence told US ambassadors in Washington on Jan. 16.
These developments have set the geopolitical environment in the Asia-Pacific region back to the days of the Cold War.
China’s neighbors are also increasing their vigilance. Japan, India and Vietnam all face military threats from China, and they have responded by improving their military preparedness. Strange, then, that Taiwan, which faces the greatest pressure, should appear so passive.
Seemingly not worried, Tsai says that there can be no return to conscription, while the Ministry of National Defense says that, as voluntary recruitment is a major policy of this government, it will do everything in its power to implement it.
The truth is that the government is playing a numbers game by appearing to boost the quantity of the armed forces while putting their quality into question.
Israel has conscription for both men and women to defend against the surrounding Arab countries. South Korea has conscription to defend against North Korea, Finland to deter Russia. With Russian President Vladimir Putin’s growing expansionist ambitions, Sweden and Lithuania reintroduced conscription after having abolished it.
However, Taiwan, despite facing a strong military threat from China, has done exactly the opposite. Tsai should consider reintroducing conscription.
Lau Yi-te is chairman of the Taiwan Solidarity Union.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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