Eighteen years of mistaken attempts to integrate Taiwan’s economy with China’s pushed Taiwan to negative economic growth and the brink of collapse. After the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) shouldered the burden left by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government in 2016, a Herculean effort has brought back economic growth of 2.8 percent.
However, the DPP ended last year with an electoral defeat because of Chinese grassroots infiltration.
Unfortunately, it seems the intense US-China conflict is to continue this year. Without compromise, global trade is likely to contract, with Taiwan suffering more than other countries.
This is the result of the attempt to create a “one China” market over the past 18 years. There is no panacea: Only hard work will gradually correct the past economic integration with China.
One thing that the government must do this year is prevent African swine fever from entering Taiwan. Failure to do so would cost Taiwan NT$200 billion (US$6.48 billion) and the DPP government power come 2020.
The government has set up relevant emergency response mechanisms, but apart from raising fines for bringing pork products into the country, there have been no concrete measures, and radical and tangible policies are now needed.
First, the “small three links” should be temporarily suspended.
The Mainland Affairs Council has on several occasions asked China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits for epidemic information, but received no response.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has also called on China to keep Taiwan updated, to which China’s Taiwan Affairs Office responded that Taiwan does not import Chinese pork.
Using China’s failure to provide information about African swine fever as a reason, Taiwan could temporarily close the direct trade links, thus blocking the riskiest channels.
If anyone fears that this would cost votes, they can rest easy. Closing the “small three links” would only bring slight inconvenience to Taiwanese businesspeople who would have to fly home from Xiamen.
Second, online shopping between Taiwan and China should be temporarily suspended.
The legislature has passed amendments to the Statute for Prevention and Control of Infectious Animal Disease (動物傳染病防治條例) banning imports by mail of products requiring quarantine, but thousands of objects are bought online every day and it is difficult to prevent goods requiring quarantine from entering the country.
Overall, online shopping is not very important to Taiwan’s economy, so it could be suspended temporarily, while coastal defenses are strengthened to prevent smuggling.
This would not cost votes either, because as long as consumers have money, they could still buy what they need.
It would be a great achievement if the government could keep African swine fever outside Taiwan, and it would instill public confidence and respect.
There is no need to worry whether the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would take revenge or whether cross-strait economic exchanges would decrease.
When Taiwan ended the cross-strait service trade agreement, the CCP still allowed Taiwanese banks to enter China. Using the economy to promote unification and controlling Taiwan is beneficial to China and would impoverish Taiwan.
Furthermore, China would not dare take any rash action, because the US-China trade dispute is continuing and Beijing suffers from not cooperating on African swine fever prevention.
Huang Tien-lin is a national policy adviser and a former advisory member of the National Security Council.
Translated by Perry Svensson
Because much of what former US president Donald Trump says is unhinged and histrionic, it is tempting to dismiss all of it as bunk. Yet the potential future president has a populist knack for sounding alarums that resonate with the zeitgeist — for example, with growing anxiety about World War III and nuclear Armageddon. “We’re a failing nation,” Trump ranted during his US presidential debate against US Vice President Kamala Harris in one particularly meandering answer (the one that also recycled urban myths about immigrants eating cats). “And what, what’s going on here, you’re going to end up in World War
Earlier this month in Newsweek, President William Lai (賴清德) challenged the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to retake the territories lost to Russia in the 19th century rather than invade Taiwan. He stated: “If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t [the PRC] take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the treaty of Aigun?” This was a brilliant political move to finally state openly what many Chinese in both China and Taiwan have long been thinking about the lost territories in the Russian far east: The Russian far east should be “theirs.” Granted, Lai issued
On Tuesday, President William Lai (賴清德) met with a delegation from the Hoover Institution, a think tank based at Stanford University in California, to discuss strengthening US-Taiwan relations and enhancing peace and stability in the region. The delegation was led by James Ellis Jr, co-chair of the institution’s Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region project and former commander of the US Strategic Command. It also included former Australian minister for foreign affairs Marise Payne, influential US academics and other former policymakers. Think tank diplomacy is an important component of Taiwan’s efforts to maintain high-level dialogue with other nations with which it does
On Sept. 2, Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal called “The US and Taiwan Must Change Course” that defends his position that the US and Taiwan are not doing enough to deter the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from taking Taiwan. Colby is correct, of course: the US and Taiwan need to do a lot more or the PRC will invade Taiwan like Russia did against Ukraine. The US and Taiwan have failed to prepare properly to deter war. The blame must fall on politicians and policymakers