During the annual World Health Assembly (WHA) last month in Geneva, Switzerland, the governments of the US, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and Germany, as well as 17 of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies and other friendly nations, spoke out against China’s obstruction of Taiwan’s attendance at the meeting.
The head of the US Department of Health and Human Services and high-level officials from the US Department of State joined Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) for bilateral talks. However, one diplomatic ally, Burkina Faso, subsequently announced that it was switching allegiance to China.
During the course of the WHA meeting, Beijing was plotting to poach yet another ally of Taiwan. This, combined with its efforts to force Taiwan to recognize its so-called “one China” principle and its refusal to allow Taiwan to even participate in the meeting as an observer, shows that a full-scale diplomatic war between Taiwan and China is now in full swing.
Some Taiwanese observers have expressed surprise and blamed President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) for refusing to endorse the so-called “1992 consensus.” In reality it forms part of China’s twin-pronged attack on Taiwan, and Beijing would love to have the government, as well as the opposition, on board with this.
From the budget allocations in this year’s US National Defense Authorization Act to the US Taiwan Travel Act, the US has launched initiatives to strengthen its political and military relationship with Taiwan. However, the Tsai administration has consistently adopted a passive attitude and sought to maintain the so-called “status quo” with China.
It is the constant threatening behavior coming from China that has created the present situation, in which Beijing is now under siege from Washington: It brought this on itself.
As China is unable to retaliate against the US and the US-China trade war continues to gain steam, Beijing is taking out its anger on Taiwan, as if it were a punching bag. However, China is not just venting its spleen; Beijing clearly has its sights set on supplanting the US as the world’s pre-eminent superpower.
Beijing is pursuing a policy of attack as the best defense through multifaceted means and has warned that closer US-Taiwan ties could well lead to a dangerous situation.
Alex Wong (黃之瀚) is deputy assistant secretary at the State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. His official visit to Taiwan, which included meeting with and sharing a platform with Tsai, is a clear elevation of high-level interaction between the two nations and it is this type of interaction that Beijing seeks to deter.
To date, Taipei has borne the brunt of the cross-strait tension and political impasse with Beijing. So-called “military unification” and the endless stream of threats against Taiwan is backed up by hostile “military exercises.”
Chinese warships and bombers now encircle Taiwan, and encroach upon its airspace and territorial waters with increasing frequency. Although this appears to be the “new normal,” Taiwan cannot afford to let down its guard.
The government must thoroughly prepare for the threat of a possible peripheral conflict with China’s People’s Liberation Army, including the possibility of an accidental discharge of fire or a reckless act by China’s military.
However, Beijing’s ramping up of tensions in the Taiwan Strait has not gone unnoticed by US President Donald Trump.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) militarization of the South China Sea has spurred on the US Navy to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the disputed waters in a show of naval force. Washington has also announced that it will not invite China to take part in the US Navy’s annual Rim of the Pacific Exercises scheduled for later this year.
Moreover, while it is still uncertain whether the meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will go ahead; Trump has hinted that he believes Xi is interfering behind the scenes.
The US can make things difficult for China if it wants to, but China has the ability to give the US a taste of its own medicine. Beijing ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan is an elaborate decoy to conceal its hostile intent toward the US.
Xi’s “Chinese dream” often translates into flexing China’s muscles on the world stage, but as a result of the US-China trade war, Chinese firms, such as ZTE Corp and Huawei Technologies Co, have become collateral damage, exposing a fatal flaw in Xi’s “Made in China 2025” strategy.
Since the outset of the trade war, Xi’s initial bombastic tone has been replaced by gradual capitulation: agreeing to lower tariffs and buy more US goods, and searching for a way out of the conflict. It is unquestionably a serious setback for Xi’s “China dream.”
Xi’s aggressive promotion of his Belt and Road Initiative and poaching of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies from the US’ backyard, his militarization of the South China Sea, continued attempts to trip up the US as it seeks to negotiate the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula — one can clearly see that his strategy is to challenge Washington using a range of open and covert attacks.
Taiwan forms a key part of China’s confrontation with the US. Although ostensibly a small nation, Taiwan commands a vital geostrategic position. Last month, the State Department announced that it had approved a marketing license needed for US manufacturers to sell technology to Taiwan so that it can proceed with its indigenous submarine-building program.
In doing so, the US is helping to rebalance military power in the Taiwan Strait, while military cooperation between Taiwan and the US will become more regular in the future. This should help to keep in check Beijing’s hegemonic ambitions.
Beijing still fears that Trump may not be the toothless paper tiger it thought he was after all. For this reason, China’s military maneuvers against Taiwan have been mainly focused on psychological warfare.
New forms of political and economic “united front” tactics have so far not met with opposition from Washington, as such tactics, unlike conventional military action, do not fall under the US political establishment’s definition of “unilaterally changing the status quo.”
The cost of chipping away at Taiwan and achieving parity with the US is actually relatively low for China. If, due to manipulation by Beijing, the Taiwanese public elects another pro-China government that rapidly tips the domestic political equilibrium toward China, this will blow a hole in the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy and Taiwan will become an Achilles’ heel for the US in the Western Pacific.
The Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea would also merge into one massive expanse of sea under Chinese control and embolden Beijing to become even more arrogant and aggressive. In short, the sun would set on the Indo-Pacific region.
The power play between the US and China is being played out through Taiwan. Viewed from the perspective of Taiwan’s respective relationships with these two major powers, its diplomatic allies have more symbolic than substantive meaning. Therefore, losing or gaining an ally or two only has a limited effect.
However, the reason that Beijing never tires of poaching Taiwan’s allies is that it is focused on influencing Taiwanese politics and public opinion as part of its psychological warfare. It does not take a giant leap of the imagination to see that Beijing has timed the pilfering of Taiwan’s allies to coincide with November’s local elections.
Former American Institute in Taiwan director William Stanton has said that the worsening of the US-China relationship is not necessarily a good thing for Taiwan, as Beijing will do everything in its power to deal with the “Taiwan problem.”
Stanton argued that the US and other nations must increase their support for Taiwan in terms of diplomacy and sales of military equipment, and by enhancing their trade relationships with Taiwan.
This is an absolutely correct analysis of Taiwan’s current predicament and is reflected in the loss — whether symbolic or substantive — of Burkina Faso.
Translated by Edward Jones
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