The meteoric rise of the New Power Party (NPP) on the heels of the 2014 student-led Sunflower movement — arguably one of the major events shaping Taiwan’s current political climate — sparked hopes that the nation was in the process of breaking the shackles of two-party politics and embracing a more vibrant democracy.
Those hopes seem to be on shaky ground, after a survey by the pan-green Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation released this week found a significant drop in the NPP’s support rating over the past year.
The results have baffled and unsettled many, sowing fears that the NPP, like many smaller parties before it, is likely to become marginalized and irrelevant over time.
The poll found that just 6.4 percent of respondents sided with the NPP, compared with 14.9 percent who did so in July last year.
Meanwhile, support for the nation’s two largest parties has begun to bounce back after some ups and downs over the past year. About 30.2 percent and 18 percent of respondents identified with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) respectively, whose support rates stood at 30.4 percent and 16 percent respectively in July last year.
However, before jumping to conclusions about the long-term viability of the NPP, it is important to consider why other smaller parties, such as the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) or the New Party, became irrelevant.
During former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) two terms in office, issues such as independence-unification, country normalization and relations with China played a dominant role in local politics. They were often at the center of election campaigns and of most parties’ concerns.
The global financial crisis that erupted in 2007 and government inefficiency caused by politicians’ emphasis on national identity issues shifted the political climate. The general public, and voters, started to pay more attention to matters more closely related to their lives.
The change forced parties to adapt and evolve to survive, with the KMT putting more emphasis on the economy and the DPP on domestic reform. The TSU and New Party, which continued to focus solely on the independence/unification issue, simply faded from an environment that was already hostile to smaller parties.
Why did voters, especially younger ones, choose the NPP over the TSU in last year’s elections, when the two parties are considered “ultra-green” on the independence-unification spectrum?
The NPP’s association with the Sunflower movement made it more relatable to young voters, but it is its support for progressive social issues to which the younger generation attaches greater importance — the legalization of same-sex marriage, better labor laws, environmental protection and the abolition of the death penalty — might be what was really driving its popularity.
Another finding in the foundation’s survey might also shed some light on what is happening: 38.2 percent of respondents said they did not support a specific party, up from 22.1 percent in July last year. That is higher than the DPP’s latest support rating.
That big jump could indicate that fewer voters are willing to blindly support a party and might switch from one party to another, or to a non-partisan candidate, if a party disappoints them or no longer stands for the values in which they believe.
Taiwan is not sliding back to the era of two-party politics. Instead, its voters appear willing to embrace any party that can better represent their interests.
This might be good news for the nation’s democratic system, but it is not for those parties that have become too complacent to stay in-sync with mainstream values.
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