Where will Taiwan go from here? This has become a major issue following the termination of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Panama. Many politicians have expressed their views, but these are unlikely to be accepted by everyone.
The problem is not about what relationship Taiwan wants to have with China, but rather how Taiwan would like to connect with the rest of the world.
The problem between Taiwan and China will remain unresolved for the time being, regardless of whether Taiwan maintains the “status quo.”
The Chinese Communist Party will not stop putting pressure on Taiwan in the international community and it is entirely possible that the number of the Republic of China’s (ROC) diplomatic allies will drop into the single digits.
Although it might not happen in the short term, the long-term trend is obvious. So what will Taiwan do?
One possibility is to use the model of relations between Taiwan and the US, which has existed for 38 years, and try to maximize it by pushing for other major nations to pass legislation similar to the US’ Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
Another option is to persuade nations representing half of global GDP to pass such laws to improve their recognition of and guarantees toward Taiwan’s existence.
It would be a huge, global undertaking to mobilize international non-governmental organizations and political forces friendly to Taiwan to lobby such legislation.
The most obvious example is Japan, where such an act can be passed in the near term. Apart from Japan, it might be possible to pass such legislation in at least 10 other nations and Taiwan needs to work hard to gain all their support.
As the ROC loses diplomatic allies, Taiwan could attempt to establish non-diplomatic relations with other major nations under the name of “Taiwan,” but these should be based on the same kind of domestic legislation as the TRA, rather than on diplomatic relations and international law or bilateral treaties.
Using national laws to confirm the existence of Taiwan would serve these nations’ interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan would be able to participate in the international community while maintaining its democracy, freedom, human rights and rule of law, which would also be in the overall interests of these nations.
That some nations offer Taiwanese visa-exempt entry shows that they understand Taiwan’s strength, that it is separate from China, and that this separation is beneficial to them and their national interests.
During his term in office, former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) advocated a “special state-to-state relationship” between Taiwan and China.
It would be the best solution for cross-strait relations, but it was rejected by China.
It seems a special state-to-state relationship has been in existence for 38 years, thanks to the relationship between Taiwan and the US that was established through the TRA.
Although it is not an official diplomatic relationship, it is a stable special state-to-state relationship. Because it is a domestic US law, the question of severing or maintaining diplomatic ties between Taiwan and the US will never become an issue.
If Taiwan were to establish a “US relations act” based on the TRA, the two nations could rely on their respective domestic legislation to build a special and stable diplomatic relationship.
If it were possible to persuade other nations to create such legislation, Taiwan could respond in kind.
The government could set up a Taiwan institute in the US in response to the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto US embassy in Taiwan, and Japan could call its embassy the Japan Institute in Taiwan, while Taiwan’s embassy in Japan would be called the Taiwan Institute in Japan. This way, the names of offices in every nation that implements a “Taiwan relations act” would be standardized.
There used to be 10 or more such nations. The new international order created by such a move would by necessity influence the international system, and each year a “Taiwan relations act alliance conference” could be held in Taiwan to bolster the special state-to-state alliance.
In addition, Taiwan accords could be established on major international issues that are also Taiwan’s strengths, such as measures relating to immigration legislation, the expansion of human rights and humanitarian aid. This would consolidate the legitimacy and the value of the Taiwan relations act alliance.
The government should start discussing this possibility instead of putting vainglorious efforts into participating in international events every year.
A Taiwan relations act alliance could solve the irregular situation that is the result of China’s malicious manipulations.
Taiwan could hold a constitutional referendum that would pave the way for the founding of a new state.
Such an act, driven by civic self-determination, could provide the basis for demanding international recognition.
If Taiwan were to invest in special state-to-state relations, it would only be a matter of Taiwan making a decision about its national title, as “Taiwan” by that time would be written into the domestic legislation of all major nations.
Throughout the process, it would not be of relevance how many nations maintain diplomatic relations with the ROC.
Yang Hsien-hung is president of the Taiwan Association for China Human Rights.
Translated by Eddy Chang and Perry Svensson
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