In a drill on Nov. 25, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft flew once around Taiwan. On Saturday, PLA aircraft were once again engaged in a drill. The Chinese military aircraft not only circled Taiwan’s airspace, they also challenged the US and Japan’s control of the first island chain, and this carries huge strategic and tactical significance. Although all parties maintained their cool and avoided a clash, a war of nerves in the Asia-Pacific region is under way.
There have been media reports that the Ministry of National Defense responded to the latest exercise by the PLA Air Force by holding a drill on Saturday to prevent an enemy air raid that included Kidd-class warships at sea, Tien Kung and Patriot missiles on land and F-16 and Indigenous Defense Fighter jets in the air, while Minister of National Defense Feng Shih-kuan (馮世寬) went to the Hengshan Military Command Center in Taipei.
The Japan Air Self-Defense Force scrambled 10 F-15J aircraft to intercept the Chinese aircraft and US forces in Japan sent EP-3 and RC-135 surveillance aircraft to gather intelligence. After the Japanese aircraft reportedly fired “jamming shells”, the PLA aircraft left.
All parties engaged in massive military mobilization and raised the alert in case things spun out of control. Luckily, things did not go that far, and the intelligence and national security agencies of all affected parties got away with just biting their nails.
After two such exercises, it seems the PLA sees them as a routine training assignment, and it is likely that such events will become increasingly frequent. China is testing Taiwan’s, Japan’s and the US’ willingness and determination to defend their airspace. It is also a test to discover the military deployments and capabilities of the three nations. This is to be a long-term endurance war, and none of the parties want to reveal their preparedness, while they try to reveal their counterpart’s strength.
Judging from China’s military activity in Northeast Asia and the South China Sea, it is becoming quite clear what it is attempting to do: It is increasing its military preparations in the disputed territorial waters in the South and the East China seas, which could be because Beijing thinks that US President Barack Obama’s “pivot” toward Asia will come to an end when Obama leaves the White House and because US president-elect Donald Trump’s Asia policy is still unclear. China is likely consolidating its military power in Asia.
Taiwan controls Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) in the South China Sea and is a claimant to the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) in the East China Sea. One of several claimants in these waters, the nation cannot remain aloof as larger powers compete to exert their influence in the region.
Taiwan proper is also under threat from the Chinese military, and President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is unwilling to accept the so-called “1992 consensus.”
To pressure Tsai and force her to comply with China’s demands, Beijing is resorting to propaganda as well as military measures.
In this war of nerves, Taiwan must toughen up, bolster its defense abilities and initiate preventive exercises.
Taiwan must increase diplomatic and military cooperation with the US and Japan to prevent any minor oversight that could give China the opportunity it is looking for.
In the US’ National Security Strategy (NSS) report released last month, US President Donald Trump offered his interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The “Trump Corollary,” presented on page 15, is a distinctly aggressive rebranding of the more than 200-year-old foreign policy position. Beyond reasserting the sovereignty of the western hemisphere against foreign intervention, the document centers on energy and strategic assets, and attempts to redraw the map of the geopolitical landscape more broadly. It is clear that Trump no longer sees the western hemisphere as a peaceful backyard, but rather as the frontier of a new Cold War. In particular,
When it became clear that the world was entering a new era with a radical change in the US’ global stance in US President Donald Trump’s second term, many in Taiwan were concerned about what this meant for the nation’s defense against China. Instability and disruption are dangerous. Chaos introduces unknowns. There was a sense that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) might have a point with its tendency not to trust the US. The world order is certainly changing, but concerns about the implications for Taiwan of this disruption left many blind to how the same forces might also weaken
As the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) races toward its 2027 modernization goals, most analysts fixate on ship counts, missile ranges and artificial intelligence. Those metrics matter — but they obscure a deeper vulnerability. The true future of the PLA, and by extension Taiwan’s security, might hinge less on hardware than on whether the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can preserve ideological loyalty inside its own armed forces. Iran’s 1979 revolution demonstrated how even a technologically advanced military can collapse when the social environment surrounding it shifts. That lesson has renewed relevance as fresh unrest shakes Iran today — and it should
As the new year dawns, Taiwan faces a range of external uncertainties that could impact the safety and prosperity of its people and reverberate in its politics. Here are a few key questions that could spill over into Taiwan in the year ahead. WILL THE AI BUBBLE POP? The global AI boom supported Taiwan’s significant economic expansion in 2025. Taiwan’s economy grew over 7 percent and set records for exports, imports, and trade surplus. There is a brewing debate among investors about whether the AI boom will carry forward into 2026. Skeptics warn that AI-led global equity markets are overvalued and overleveraged
RSS