The Hong Kong Electoral Affairs Commission has disqualified several candidates from running in next month’s Legislative Council elections. This is because, according to the commission, advocating Hong Kong independence is in violation of Hong Kong’s Basic Law and it conflicts with the policy direction that Beijing has laid out for Hong Kong.
According to the commission, anyone who advocates independence or initiates pro-independence activities is not upholding the Basic Law and is therefore unable to fulfill the duties of a member of the council.
It would seem that universal elections for Hong Kong’s chief executive and council members remain a very distant goal and that Beijing intends to use next month’s elections to institute drastic changes and further integrate Hong Kong with the rest of China.
The disappearances of Causeway Bay Books staff and shareholders, followed by the arrest and conviction of James Wang (王健民), the founder of New-Way Monthly and political magazine Lianpu, were clearly just appetizers on Beijing’s menu.
If Beijing treats Hong Kong this way, the treatment on the mainland will be even harsher. In recent years, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has attacked his political enemies, and the arrest of civil rights lawyers and democracy advocates is becoming commonplace. When Xi said that the name of Chinese media is “the party,” he should have said “Xi.”
China’s economy seems to be headed for a hard landing. Xi has abandoned former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) preference for keeping a low profile and opted for saber rattling in the international community.
This posturing has caused Japan to pass new security legislation and South Korea to deploy the US’ Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-ballistic missile system.
India is considering deploying Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles along its disputed border with China and the US has on several occasions sent aircraft carriers and destroyers to conduct freedom of navigation voyages in the South China Sea.
Last month, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, ruled that the “nine-dash line” China uses to base historical claims on the South China Sea lacks legal footing. This constituted a tough diplomatic defeat for Xi, and he is now taking a tougher approach in order to consolidate his leadership.
As he takes a tighter grip on power, Xi is resorting to a show of force to prompt submission, both domestically and internationally.
In addition, he is playing up nationalism and xenophobia while breaking up domestic collective leadership and suppressing liberalization in order to consolidate his leadership. Xi’s strategy is to take a hard approach both domestically and internationally.
By the same token, that is his only approach toward Taiwan. The government is based on public support, and when President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) proposed her view of the so-called “1992 consensus” and offered China an olive branch, the pro-localization camp was unhappy, while Beijing felt that she did not go far enough.
American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Raymond Burghardt said that neither then-Straits Exchange Foundation chairman Koo Chen-fu (辜振甫) nor then-Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits chairman Wang Daohan (汪道涵), who led the talks that took place in 1992, ever mentioned a “1992 consensus.”
However, Xi continues to insist that Tsai must follow in the footsteps of former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and accept that Taiwan is part of “one China” and oppose Taiwanese independence. All Xi has to say about Taiwanese democracy and to 23.5 million Taiwanese is “1.3 billion Chinese do not agree.”
China’s tough approach seems to be heralding the rise of a superpower. It even wants to claim the South China Sea.
The US does not think much of these demands, nor does Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam or India. As Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) told US President Barack Obama, this has led to all ASEAN states warmly welcoming the US’ rebalancing toward Asia.
Furthermore, China’s current tough approach could well be a sign that, while it wants to appear strong, it is actually weak: Internal conflict keeps fomenting as crony capitalism keeps eating away at social stability.
The “Panama Papers” exposed internal corruption behind a gilded exterior and Xi is now directing all firepower away from China in order to shift the focus. The reason behind China’s tough approach both internationally and domestically is a conspiracy among the country’s leadership.
Unfortunately, Hong Kong is taking the brunt of this approach and is has no way out. The “one country, two systems” white paper in 2014, which announced that Beijing had total control over Hong Kong, and the Causeway Bay Books disappearances have been the death knell of the “one country, two systems” policy.
Beijing has closed the door by disqualifying pro-independence candidates from contesting the council elections. By tightening the screws on Hong Kong and imposing its will, Beijing has prevented the chimera of democracy from becoming real. This is also representative of an iron fist approach to liberalization on the mainland.
That liberal-leaning monthly magazine Yanhuang Chunqiu has been closed down is evidence that Xi does not accept any kind of criticism. In addition, his approach toward Hong Kong is also pointed at Taiwan. The Tsai administration represents Taiwan’s mainstream public opinion and it must stop waiting for Beijing to evaluate its “test sheet.”
After the South China Sea ruling, China once again turned on Taiwanese entertainers in order to shift the focus away from the Chinese government. The US has reiterated its support for Taiwan’s meaningful attendance at the International Civil Aviation Organization Assembly next month, but China is using the event as blackmail by demanding recognition of the “one China” principle.
Furthermore, Beijing put pressure on Kenya to extradite Taiwanese fraud suspects to China. It is easy to see what China is trying to gain by taking Taiwanese as hostages while claiming to fight crime.
The government must not be overly cautious as it lays down its cross-strait policy. It must take advantage of geopolitical changes in the Asia-Pacific region to guarantee Taiwan’s security, dignity and interests.
It is clear that China will continue to take a tougher approach toward Taiwan in the international arena, and the government’s strategy should be that diplomacy is more important than cross-strait relations as it unhesitatingly joins its allies in opposition to the Chinese threat.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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