Academics from Chinese think tanks gave friendly assessments to President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) inauguration address on May 20. They said her speech expressed goodwill toward China. However, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) sternly declared that on the question of the basic nature of the cross-strait relationship, Tsai had adopted a vague stance, without clearly acknowledging the so-called “1992 consensus,” endorsing the core implications of the “consensus” or providing assurances of any specific policies to ensure cross-strait peace and stability.
Although Beijing is taking a mixed approach to Tsai’s address, it has not changed its attempts to force her to respond to demands for recognition of the “1992 consensus.”
Beijing’s strategy is to use psychological warfare and “public opinion” as a means to pressure Taiwan. Another example of this is China’s reported plan to reduce the number of Chinese tourists and students allowed to come to Taiwan for travel and study.
Taiwanese must pay attention to the way such information is revealed by media outlets, which always turns out to be specious. Although such stories generally refer to specific people, events or places, they are always incomplete and use phrases such as: “According to an off-the-record disclosure by a Chinese exchange student studying in Taiwan,” or “a reader surnamed Chen said,” or “a Taiwanese company involved in education based in China has revealed to the Apple Daily,” etc.
Despite all that has been said, it is important to remember that none of these rumors have yet been confirmed by the TAO.
By not providing any further clarification or information on these rather unfriendly and incomplete reports, the media are helping to further Beijing’s interests.
By allowing multiple rumors to develop, psychological pressure builds, which allows China’s leadership to test public sentiment and Taiwan’s political situation. Then, if it appears to be working, Beijing will continue to turn up the heat and try to force Tsai’s administration to make policy concessions or change its stance.
However, if that does not seem to be having any effect, the TAO can provide clarification, state that the rumors are false, and then change tack to focus on another issue to test the government.
Once Beijing has tried all of its ploys and devices, whatever the results, China’s leaders could suddenly relax restrictions on Chinese students studying in Taiwan. This would provide a welcome relief to those colleges and universities that rely on attracting Chinese students, and that would feel a debt of gratitude to Beijing for its magnanimity. This is the old bullyboy trick of following up a show of force with an act of kindness.
Previous debate over the issue of Chinese students, such as whether it is right that they use the National Health Insurance system, would quickly fade away.
Taiwan’s high degree of reliance on the Chinese market has made it easy for Beijing to manipulate public discourse. However, it also serves as a timely warning to the government that broadening Taiwan’s trade base and reducing the nation’s reliance on the Chinese market is of the utmost importance.
Since Taiwan’s level of reliance on China has already shown the nation’s economy to be fragile and sensitive, if Tsai’s administration chooses to continue along the course set by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), it is easy to see that Taiwan will fall ever deeper into China’s embrace, from which there can be no escape.
Chang Ching-yun is an assistant research fellow at the Taiwan Brain Trust.
Translated by Edward Jones
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