When Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was elected to become the nation’s second Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president on Jan. 16, speculation soon emerged about the tactics China would use to browbeat Tsai into realizing that her life would be miserable unless she acted at Beijing’s beck and call.
China began by saying that adhering to the so-called “1992 consensus” — a supposed understanding between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese government that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with both sides having their own interpretation of what “China” means — would be its bottom line. Beijing said that the consequences of not toeing its line would be catastrophic.
When Tsai showed no signs of giving in to Beijing’s verbal threats, it stepped up its efforts by attacking Taiwan where it would hurt the most: foreign relations.
Taiwan only has 22 diplomatic allies. It is plagued by a constant state of dread that at any moment they might switch sides to recognize the People’s Republic of China as the sole government of China.
The Chinese government is aware of that fear. That is why its first move was to establish diplomatic ties with the Gambia on Mar. 17, two years and four months after the African nation unilaterally severed ties with Taiwan.
The renewed link between China and the Gambia was followed by rumors that the Vatican, Taiwan’s sole European ally, was about to enter talks with Beijing to establish diplomatic relations.
Beijing’s efforts escalated with the abduction of 45 Taiwanese who were either acquitted from telecom fraud charges or suspected of telecom fraud in Kenya.
That the Kenyan authorities were willing to ignore an injunction issued by their own courts barring the deportation of Taiwanese for the sake of appeasing China has given rise to a new worry: that if China wants it, more Taiwanese could fall victim to such uncivilized treatment in any part of the world.
Beijing’s motives are clear. It intends to deter Tsai from following in the footsteps of former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), whom it deemed a troublemaker because of his “Taiwanization” agenda, while discouraging her from pushing Taiwan toward de jure independence.
However, if Chen’s terms in office are any indication, no amount of goodwill from a DPP president would earn Beijing’s trust, nor would it be met with any compromise from China on its ultimate goal of annexing Taiwan. Chen tried and failed to do so during his eight years in power.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) barely succeeded in this regard, as it seems that China does not care about the false appearance of cross-strait rapprochement that the outgoing KMT president has worked so hard to create and has taken great pride in, when it is busy issuing threats to force Tsai to fall in line.
The Kenya incident also proves that the 23 oft-touted cross-strait agreements signed by the Ma administration are mere stacks of waste paper that China can tear up at any time.
Taiwan might lose more diplomatic allies after Tsai is sworn in next month, considering that relations with most of those allies are only kept alive by periodic financial aid — something China can easily outmatch.
There is no point in fixating on the number of diplomatic allies. A more realistic approach would be to boost diplomatic efforts and forge substantial relations with nations that are conducive to Taiwan’s economic and strategic development.
By doing so, Tsai would be partially freed from the shackles that China has placed on the nation and be able to carry out her agenda for Taiwan, without having to constantly watch over her shoulder for a vengeful Beijing.
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
The Legislative Yuan passed an amendment on Friday last week to add four national holidays and make Workers’ Day a national holiday for all sectors — a move referred to as “four plus one.” The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who used their combined legislative majority to push the bill through its third reading, claim the holidays were chosen based on their inherent significance and social relevance. However, in passing the amendment, they have stuck to the traditional mindset of taking a holiday just for the sake of it, failing to make good use of
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
RSS