Diplomatic tensions between Germany and Hungary arose recently after German Chancellor Angela Merkel used the word “cavalry” in remarks about concerns over constitutional changes in Hungary.
“We will do anything to get Hungary onto the right path — but not by sending in the cavalry right away,” Merkel said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban responded by referring to the German tanks that had invaded Hungary during World War II in 1944, even though the Germans explained that Merkel was only being ironic with her mention of cavalry.
Similar misunderstandings can be found in the dispute between Taiwan and the Philippines over the death of fisherman Hung Shih-cheng (洪石成), who was killed by Philippine Coast Guard personnel on May 9 in waters in the overlapping exclusive economic zones of the countries.
One could recount the sequence of events and argue that Taipei and Manila have both made the same kind of error as Merkel, and today’s situation might be drastically different if they had chosen their words more carefully and diplomatically.
Taiwan’s strong response to the Philippines was unusual. President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration described Manila’s apology over Hung’s death, conveyed in a message brought to Taipei by Philippine President Benigno Aquino III’s special envoy, Manila Economic and Cultural Office Chairman Armadeo Perez, as “insincere.” Ma then went a step further when both sides were still debating jurisdiction and a proposed joint investigation, saying at an official diplomatic event that Hung’s death was “cold-blooded murder.”
Those comments, along with reports of Taiwanese discriminating against or assaulting Filipinos — some of which were later proven to be false — simply added fuel to the fire.
Manila might be having a hard time figuring out how an apology conveyed by a presidential envoy could be interpreted as insincere, and how its coast guard personnel could be labeled “cold-blooded murderers” when investigations were still under way. However, Malacanang Palace’s own comments have not been helpful and have even been considered provocative by some. From the very beginning, Manila has described the shooting as an unfortunate and unintended incident, something Taiwan finds difficult to accept given the 50-plus bullet holes in the fishing boat — most of which were found in the crew’s cabin.
The Philippines citing its “one China” policy as a reason it does not consider Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone claims legitimate and why the incident could not be dealt with on a government-to-government level have been seen as an attack on Taiwanese identity and Taiwan’s proclamation of its sovereignty and de facto independence.
Both Taipei and Manila have committed the cardinal diplomatic sin of using strong and unequivocal wording. Both are suffering the consequences because they have left no room to maneuver. While being vague is resented most of the time, vagueness is often useful for diplomats, politicians and countries; it is a necessity in diplomacy.
Washington is able to engage with Taiwan and China at the same time because of vagueness. For example, it uses “the people of Taiwan” rather than the “Taiwanese people” in its official Taiwan-related documents and comments. The same vagueness can be seen in its China policy, the Taiwan Relations Act and many other areas.
While Taiwanese and Filipinos have thrown tantrums and attacked each other verbally and in cyberspace, government officials of both nations cannot afford to speak carelessly. Thoughtless remarks used for short-term political gains can have lasting repercussions on bilateral relations when, with a more considered approach, things could have easily gone the other way.
The conflict in the Middle East has been disrupting financial markets, raising concerns about rising inflationary pressures and global economic growth. One market that some investors are particularly worried about has not been heavily covered in the news: the private credit market. Even before the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, global capital markets had faced growing structural pressure — the deteriorating funding conditions in the private credit market. The private credit market is where companies borrow funds directly from nonbank financial institutions such as asset management companies, insurance companies and private lending platforms. Its popularity has risen since
The Donald Trump administration’s approach to China broadly, and to cross-Strait relations in particular, remains a conundrum. The 2025 US National Security Strategy prioritized the defense of Taiwan in a way that surprised some observers of the Trump administration: “Deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority.” Two months later, Taiwan went entirely unmentioned in the US National Defense Strategy, as did military overmatch vis-a-vis China, giving renewed cause for concern. How to interpret these varying statements remains an open question. In both documents, the Indo-Pacific is listed as a second priority behind homeland defense and
Every analyst watching Iran’s succession crisis is asking who would replace supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Yet, the real question is whether China has learned enough from the Persian Gulf to survive a war over Taiwan. Beijing purchases roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported crude — some 1.61 million barrels per day last year — and holds a US$400 billion, 25-year cooperation agreement binding it to Tehran’s stability. However, this is not simply the story of a patron protecting an investment. China has spent years engineering a sanctions-evasion architecture that was never really about Iran — it was about Taiwan. The
In an op-ed published in Foreign Affairs on Tuesday, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) said that Taiwan should not have to choose between aligning with Beijing or Washington, and advocated for cooperation with Beijing under the so-called “1992 consensus” as a form of “strategic ambiguity.” However, Cheng has either misunderstood the geopolitical reality and chosen appeasement, or is trying to fool an international audience with her doublespeak; nonetheless, it risks sending the wrong message to Taiwan’s democratic allies and partners. Cheng stressed that “Taiwan does not have to choose,” as while Beijing and Washington compete, Taiwan is strongest when