Fri, May 25, 2012 - Page 9 News List

The euro awaits its verdict, and so does the rest of the world

By Simon Johnson and Peter Boone

The creation of the euro just over a decade ago was a courageous and unique experiment. Today, the outcome — whether the euro will survive and whether the Europeans are right to keep it — is very much in doubt. However, if the eurozone does survive, it promises great advantages for member countries — and perhaps for the world.

The euro is an ultra-fixed currency among members: Participating countries locked themselves into an initial exchange rate vis-a-vis their pre-existing currencies and then threw the keys into the long grass. Nowadays, an increasing number of Europeans are combing that grass, quietly looking for those keys.

The euro shares important features with versions of the old gold standard, under which countries fixed their exchange rates relative to each other by setting the price at which domestic currency could be redeemed in gold. Today, some people espouse the view — often loudly — that the gold standard was synonymous with economic and financial stability. However, that is completely at odds with the historical record: The era of the gold standard is replete with boom-bust episodes fueled by over-borrowing by governments, firms, individuals or all of the above.

There are three differences between the euro and the gold standard — none of which is particularly reassuring at this moment.

First, the gold standard’s central premise was a finite quantity of gold in the world; more of it cannot be created or discovered, at least not quickly. By contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) can create more euros if so desired. Countries cannot run out of liquidity, because the ECB can always provide more cash.

However, governments and investors know this, and the result has been much higher debt-to-GDP ratios than would have been possible under the gold standard. The eurozone as a whole has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90 percent, which is high by any standard.

Such debt levels are sustainable as long as investors continue to assume that another bailout is just around the corner. But if the ECB is threatening to cut off support — for example, because a government will not comply with what the Germans regard as good economic policy — the whole house of cards can come tumbling down.

Second, financial markets have become huge relative to anything seen under the gold standard. European banks could bulk up in large part because it was assumed that their respective governments backed them. Not only are these banks now large relative to some national economies, but the quality of government credit is now in question across the eurozone periphery — up to and including Italy. The term “risk-free asset” has become an oxymoron in contemporary Europe.

European banks have been operating on a great deal of debt and very little shareholder capital — the essential buffer against potential losses. Any shock to sovereign debt or further downturn in local economies will be transmitted through an overleveraged and undercapitalized banking system to other European countries and — quite possibly — elsewhere, including the US.

Finally, for all the talk today of the discipline that the gold standard supposedly provided, countries that adhered to it regularly suspended convertibility — meaning that the domestic currency could no longer be converted freely into gold. However, today’s Europeans have no domestic currency — just the euro. If any country — for example, Greece — left the euro, all contracts in that country would have to be rewritten. The disruption, particularly to credit, would be profound.

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