China’s new defense white paper makes the usual points that its policy is “defensive in nature” and that it “will never seek hegemony, nor will it adopt the approach of military expansion now or in the future, no matter how its economy develops.”
However, these comments do not square with Beijing’s assertion of what amounts to a 21st century Monroe Doctrine. For instance, China’s claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea ignored its earlier promises of a peaceful dialogue amid competing claims to some of the island chains by neighboring countries.
By declaring territories and seas to be its sovereign domain and then backing it up with military force and/or diplomatic coercion, China was not exactly being defensive. Such acts are irrefutably provocative and aggressive.
In such a situation, to keep on saying that “China will never seek hegemony” frankly becomes meaningless.
At the same time, a double-digit increase in military expenditure of nearly 13 percent (on top of similar increases in the recent past) to an estimated US$92 billion, does not inspire confidence in China’s “peaceful rise.”
Beijing concedes that the situation in the Asia-Pacific region is generally stable, but worries about regional flash points, such as the Korean Peninsula.
It is important to realize that the instability on the peninsula is due to the dangerous antics of China’s neighbor and ally, North Korea, for two reasons.
First, Pyongyang’s nuclear policy has introduced a highly combustible element into a regional environment that has remained unstable since the Korean War.
Second, to compound this instability further, North Korea continues its policy of dangerous brinkmanship with South Korea.
This is not to suggest that China’s is encouraging Pyongyang on this course.
However, neither is it using its considerable leverage with the North, which is heavily dependent on Beijing both politically and economically.
The white paper also identifies Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan as challenges because of “separatism.”
The unrest in Tibet and Xin-jiang arises from Chinese policies intended to obliterate the ethnic and cultural identity of these regions. Beijing has pursued this goal by settling a large number of Han Chinese in these regions and thereby altering their ethnic mix.
At the same time, China has turned the economies of these regions upside down, with local people denied economic opportunities.
In other words, Beijing cannot blame local people for fighting against injustice when the odds are so heavily stacked against them.
The situation in Taiwan is completely different. Taiwan is a sovereign state that has forged its own destiny as a democratic political entity. It has also managed to continue on this course despite threats from China, including the 1,000 or more missiles targetted at Taiwan.
Beijing’s insistence that Taiwan is part of China is at the root of all the problems between the two countries. Once China accepts the reality of Taiwan’s separate existence, there is enormous scope for the development of cross-strait relations.
One encouraging feature in the white paper is that Beijing undertakes to seek greater military dialogue with the US.
Colonel Geng Yan-sheng (耿雁生) reportedly said at a news conference: “China attaches importance to its military relationship with the US ... The Chinese military is now taking steps to advance exchanges with the US military this year.”
Relations with the US had taken a dive after the administration of US President Barack Obama announced it would sell weapons to Taiwan. Beijing retaliated by suspending military exchanges with the US.
The relationship deteriorated further over a whole range of issues last year, including US-South Korean joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.
The problem is that China has come to regard the Asia-Pacific region as its sovereign territory or sphere of influence.
Therefore, it is not happy when the US asserts its political, economic and strategic interests in the region.
With China so keen to assert its regional primacy, the US’ determination to maintain a strong commitment to the region does not square well with Beijing’s ambitions.
This is what Geng apparently meant when he reportedly said: “There is no denying that in developing military relations [with the US] we still face difficulties and challenges.”
However, Beijing has to realize that a cooperative relationship with the US is a prerequisite for regional stability and prosperity.
The problem is that China has come to believe that the US is a declining power. At the same time, Chinese leaders see China as a rising superpower and are reluctant to compromise.
However, Beijing could be over-reaching itself in seeking to edge the US out of its area of influence.
China has tremendous internal problems and contradictions. The way it is attempting to root out dissidence — the most prominent recent example being the detention of artist Ai Weiwei (艾未未) — and censor references to popular uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East, is indicative of a weak, insecure regime.
In conclusion, Beijing might be better advised to spend more of its energy on political reforms at home than crafting an expansive defense policy to assert its dominance.
Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
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