As Beijing marked the 65th anniversary of the victory over Japan, the “outstanding leadership” of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was mentioned, but not a word was said about the role of the nationalist army in yet another Chinese rejection of the Republic of China (ROC).
Apparently, there is no longer any room for the ROC in the CCP’s interpretation of “one China,” and this spells immeasurable uncertainty for cross-strait relations.
The Chinese leadership in Zhongnanhai has frequently been critical of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) lately, both openly and indirectly. This was probably the most severe instance of such criticism, with its complete disregard of the CCP-KMT forum. China simply will not allow Ma the opportunity to continue using his political rhetoric as they prod him on toward political negotiations and a substantive response to China’s demands for a mechanism for establishing mutual cross-strait military confidence-building mechanism and the signing of a peace agreement.
Zhongnanhai’s displeasure with Ma is nothing new. They will not let Ma use China’s promise to forgo benefits in connection with the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) as an excuse to avoid political talks, since that is not in line with the promises made at the KMT-CCP forum.
Early last month, Beijing sent Chinese Assistant Minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office Li Yafei (李亞飛) to Taiwan.
Li made it clear that the so-called “1992 consensus” means that “the two sides of the Taiwan Strait both adhere to the one China principle,” whereas Ma continued to insist that it means “one China with each side having its own interpretation” of what that China is.
He also said that “one China means the Republic of China. There is no two ways about it.”
At first, Beijing thought this was mere electoral rhetoric, but they later found that Ma can no longer control the forces that oppose him and favor Taiwan.
This is causing problems for Hu, who has to step down in 2012 and is coming under fire from Chinese hawks who say the current situation is tantamount to “peaceful secession.”
This could lead to changes in Zhongnanhai’s strategy.
On a recent visit to China, two high US officials, Larry Summers — director of the National Economic Council and former secretary of the treasury — and Deputy National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon, found that Beijing is being “pointedly cold” and said this implies an upcoming shift in Sino-US relations.
As for Taiwan, the US and Japan are indirectly critical of Ma’s pro-Chinese policies, in particular after a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) general struck right at the heart of US worries by saying that “these weapons will be ours sooner or later, since Taiwan will return to the Motherland sooner or later.”
In terms of military power, Taiwan is no longer an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” and Ma is distancing himself from the US and Japan in favor of China, thus also distancing himself from other democracies. Beijing is jumping at the opportunity to press Taiwan into cooperating with China to rebuild Taiping Island (太平島). Unless the US is able to stabilize the situation, Taiwan’s territorial demands in the area will soon be history.
When it comes down to it, Ma is weak, incapable and living in his own dream world — eventual unification — and in his naivete, he places excessive hope on the ECFA. This tells Beijing that it can take what it wants.
When Ma is saying there will be “no unification, no independence, no war” he is only talking to himself.
Lu I-ming is the former publisher and president of Taiwan’s Shin Sheng Daily News.
TRANSLATED BY PERRY SVENSSON
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