Pre-emptive strike option
Mark Stokes pointed out the usefulness of submarines in the defense of Taiwan (“Taiwan’s debate on submarine expansion resurfaces,” Aug. 23, page 3).
The so-called “porcupine strategy” proposed by US Naval War College professor William Murray for Taiwan’s defense was purely defensive and reactive. For a small country like Taiwan, which could be overwhelmed quickly by the massive opening salvos of a surprise attack, defense strategy must include “pre-emption” and “retaliation” capabilities. As former US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld said in his farewell speech at the Pentagon, “Weakness is provocative.”
Only by making an attack on Taiwan prohibitively costly is it possible to prevent war. Under this concept, submarines, as well as mobile missiles and multi-mission-capable Blackhawk helicopters, are an absolute necessity.
Submarines, not necessarily large ones (in fact, small ones may work better and be less costly for Taiwan), could be rotated for patrol and surveillance, and pre-emptively deployed to mine Chinese naval harbors. Though carrying only a smaller complement of missiles, when aimed at a few large, important targets like coastal cities or large dams, these could be sufficient to deter an invasion.
Taiwan should seek to build its own submarines. This would require infrastructure development and cooperation with private industry. Though difficult, these kinds of economic activities are exactly what Taiwan needs to rejuvenate its economy, especially heavy and high-tech industries, and this could also keep these industries in Taiwan as the foundation for further domestic industrial upgrading. Taiwanese legislators, could find it difficult to resist industrial development and job creation in their constituencies.
With submarines, mobile missiles and Blackhawk helicopters, Taiwan could build up its active defense capabilities and deter attack.
However, given President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) goal of eventual unification and the friendly Taiwan-China relations, the above “wishes” would be very difficult to realize, even when the increasing cross-strait military imbalance in Beijing’s favor is evident.
SEBO KOH,
Publisher of Taiwan Tribune,Strongsville, Ohio
Taiwan stands at the epicenter of a seismic shift that will determine the Indo-Pacific’s future security architecture. Whether deterrence prevails or collapses will reverberate far beyond the Taiwan Strait, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics. The stakes could not be higher. Today, Taipei confronts an unprecedented convergence of threats from an increasingly muscular China that has intensified its multidimensional pressure campaign. Beijing’s strategy is comprehensive: military intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and sophisticated influence operations designed to fracture Taiwan’s democratic society from within. This challenge is magnified by Taiwan’s internal political divisions, which extend to fundamental questions about the island’s identity and future
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