For China’s leaders, the period from the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) until Taiwan’s 2012 presidential election will be a key period, during which their central strategy will be to help facilitate the re-election of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
Based on this premise, China will avoid actions that could raise questions about Ma or cause a public backlash. For example, stopping Taiwan from signing free-trade agreements (FTAs) with Southeast Asian nations would make it impossible for Ma to deliver on his promises and lead to criticism from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). As a result, China’s opposition is likely to start out small and only gradually move from individual cases to a firm political stance.
Now that the ECFA has been signed, Beijing will quietly wait for Taiwan’s year-end special municipality elections and devise an appropriate post-election response. In his quest for re-election, Ma might ignore pressure from Beijing for political dialogue and negotiation, and if that happens, China will be forced to wait patiently and respect Ma’s wishes.
Taiwan Affairs Office Director Wang Yi (王毅) understands that the time is not yet ripe for political talks and Beijing understands that premature political negotiations could be detrimental to cross-strait relations. Beijing does not agree with the concept of “one China, with each side having its own interpretation” and instead wants terms such as “one China, with both sides having the same interpretation” or “one China uniformly agreed on and expressed by both sides,” while emphasizing the the “one China” principle.
However, China has shown some flexibility and now accepts terms such as the “1992 consensus” and “the one China framework.” If the ECFA is the first step in Beijing’s unification strategy, then economic integration will be followed by social integration.
Having achieved its goal of institutionalizing cross-strait trade relations, China will continue to claim that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese.
The annual cross-strait forum held in Fujian Province, which was inaugurated last year, has attracted Taiwanese from all sectors of society and established links between people from both sides of the Strait. Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) said in his “six points” that exchanges between young people from both sides of the Strait must be strengthened and that China is willing to negotiate cultural and educational exchange agreements in order to promote exchange and cooperation in these areas.
Last month, Shanghai’s Fudan University hosted a summer camp for Taiwanese universities, attended by students from 12 national and private universities around Taiwan. The camp focused on the World Expo in Shanghai and the economic development of cities south of the Yangtze River. The aim was obviously to challenge the stereotypes young Taiwanese have about China.
Beijing knows that the US, the EU, Japan and South Korea will not sign FTAs with Taiwan, so it will only have to deal with possible FTAs between Taiwan and Singapore or the Philippines. For China, the ECFA greatly reduces cross-strait tensions, placing the onus on the US to resolve the issue of arms sales to Taiwan according to undertakings made in the 1982 joint communique signed with the US.
Beijing could become more flexible and adjust its deployment of missiles aimed at Taiwan, but at the same time, it will also be looking to sever, once and for all, the channels through which Taiwan might obtain military arms from foreign countries.
Lin Cheng-yi is a researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
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