Yesterday marked President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) second year in office and the midway point of his four-year term.
In the build-up to the anniversary, the media has been awash with surveys and polls rating almost everything, from Taiwan’s current economic situation and support for a planned economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China, to Ma’s popularity and even his chances of re-election against prospective opposition presidential candidates in 2012.
Of course, the government immediately jumped on the positive, with particular attention being given to the International Institute for Management Development’s (IMD) latest world competitiveness report, which saw Taiwan jump from 23rd to eighth position, indicating increased competitiveness and government efficiency. Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) was quick to take the plaudits.
Yet US-Taiwan Business Council Chairman Paul Wolfowitz also mentioned in a speech this week that Taiwan was ranked 46th in the World Bank’s annual Doing Business report, far behind the other three Asian “tiger” economies, with Singapore and Hong Kong in the top three.
Needless to say, the government was not so keen to highlight the results of this particular poll, and while the two reports focused on different aspects of Taiwan’s business environment, they did show the wealth of statistics that are available to people wanting to state a particular case.
This phenomenon has also been prevalent with regard to statistics and polling related to the ECFA, with reports about the economic benefits differing widely in their findings.
Government-affiliated think tanks have produced largely rosy post-ECFA predictions of GDP growth and job opportunities, while their adversaries have painted gloomy scenarios of shattered industries and job losses totaling hundreds of thousands.
Opinion polls have also mimicked this pattern, with government and pro-unification media surveys showing growing support for the pact, while the pro-independence polls have shown that opposition to signing an ECFA is strong.
With all this opposing information, it is no wonder that the public remains confused.
The result of such polling is also the reason why a growing number of people in Taiwan no longer have faith in such results.
It is a fact that statistics and polls can be manipulated to support even the most unpopular arguments, hence the adage “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
The premier probably had this in mind when he said he wanted to achieve a 60 percent public approval rating before the ECFA is signed. Even with time running out as the government’s self-imposed June deadline approaches and public opinion on the subject remains divided, Wu knows full well that there is a pollster out there somewhere that can produce the desired result.
However, while the government may be able to fudge the numbers to give it a mandate to sign an ECFA, one thing the polls have been consistent on is the continued low approval rating of Ma and his administration.
Should it continue to rule in the arrogant, arbitrary manner it has employed in its first two years, then this government will be voted out in 2012, something no amount of positive statistics will be able to prevent.
Elbridge Colby, America’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is the most influential voice on defense strategy in the Second Trump Administration. For insight into his thinking, one could do no better than read his thoughts on the defense of Taiwan which he gathered in a book he wrote in 2021. The Strategy of Denial, is his contemplation of China’s rising hegemony in Asia and on how to deter China from invading Taiwan. Allowing China to absorb Taiwan, he wrote, would open the entire Indo-Pacific region to Chinese preeminence and result in a power transition that would place America’s prosperity
A few weeks ago in Kaohsiung, tech mogul turned political pundit Robert Tsao (曹興誠) joined Western Washington University professor Chen Shih-fen (陳時奮) for a public forum in support of Taiwan’s recall campaign. Kaohsiung, already the most Taiwanese independence-minded city in Taiwan, was not in need of a recall. So Chen took a different approach: He made the case that unification with China would be too expensive to work. The argument was unusual. Most of the time, we hear that Taiwan should remain free out of respect for democracy and self-determination, but cost? That is not part of the usual script, and
All 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu Mayor Ann Kao (高虹安), formerly of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), survived recall elections against them on Saturday, in a massive loss to the unprecedented mass recall movement, as well as to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that backed it. The outcome has surprised many, as most analysts expected that at least a few legislators would be ousted. Over the past few months, dedicated and passionate civic groups gathered more than 1 million signatures to recall KMT lawmakers, an extraordinary achievement that many believed would be enough to remove at
Behind the gloating, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) must be letting out a big sigh of relief. Its powerful party machine saved the day, but it took that much effort just to survive a challenge mounted by a humble group of active citizens, and in areas where the KMT is historically strong. On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) must now realize how toxic a brand it has become to many voters. The campaigners’ amateurism is what made them feel valid and authentic, but when the DPP belatedly inserted itself into the campaign, it did more harm than good. The
RSS