In the days after the Republican US presidential contender Senator John McCain chose then Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, the Democratic party hierarchy started to panic. In the short period between her convention speech and her Katie Couric interviews, Palin looked to many like an inspired choice.
Then US senator Barack Obama had become exasperated by the propensity of the party establishment to panic at every turn of the election. Just then, a picture of him staring straight ahead and pointing at the camera went viral. On top, it read: “Everyone chill the fuck out.” Below, it said: “I got this.”
His friend and adviser Valerie Jarrett forwarded it to him.
“That’s what I was trying to tell you,” Obama told her.
Compared with most politicians, Obama has a long fuse with a slow-burn. Contemptuous of the 24-hour news cycle, when asked why it took him a few days to make a statement about AIG bonuses, he put down a CNN reporter.
“It took me a couple of days because I like to know what I talk about before I speak,” he said.
However, in recent weeks his reputation for deftly picking his moments has been countered by a far less flattering conclusion: that his moment, for the first term at least, may already have passed.
That such a verdict might be delivered so early in his tenure is problematic. It took a long time to get the US in the mess it is in today. The idea that any meaningful and enduring change could take place in just over a year is ridiculous. And yet this judgment is not driven solely by voter impatience and media frenzy. It is also shaped by the rigors of the US’ electoral timetable.
Obama’s agenda, including legislation on healthcare reform, climate change and income redistribution, was predicated on the expectation of a healthy Congressional majority. That is now in peril. Democrats currently have a majority of 77 in the House of Representatives and 18 in the Senate. According to the respected election forecasts of the Cook Political Report, there are 59 competitive House seats in the mid-terms. Of those, Democrats are defending 53 and Republicans only six. The Democratic hold on the Senate is also precarious. In the upper house there are 12 competitive seats, of which Democrats are defending eight and Republicans four. Democrats have little to show for their majorities as it is. Given the lack of discipline in the Democratic caucus, Republicans need only prevail in half of these races to make meaningful progress almost impossible.
Conventional wisdom has Obama now re-enacting former US president Bill Clinton’s first term: a hyperactive start in which the flagship legislation — healthcare — stalled, followed by a right-wing backlash at the polls that will effectively neuter what is left of his term. While such a scenario is certainly possible, there are two key reasons why, at this stage, it is anything but a foregone conclusion. They have nothing to do with Obama and everything to do with who and what is driving his opposition.
First, this Republican revival is not actually led by the Republican party. In 1994, all but two Republican House representatives signed up to The Contract with America, a manifesto written by the party leadership with help from the right-wing Heritage Foundation. This current resurgence has primarily been inspired by the Tea Party movement — a fractious group of right-wing activists who owe their growth and influence more to Fox News and talk radio than the Republican party. These people were never Democrats, but they are not particularly reliable Republicans either.
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