According to the US government’s International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR), opium, heroin and marijuana seizures have decreased since Calderon began his drug war, and drug production in Mexico is on the rise. Last year, according to the US State Department, potential heroin production reached 18 tonnes, up from 13 tonnes in 2006, as production of opium gum rose to 149 tonnes from 110 tonnes. Cannabis production grew by 300 tonnes over this period, to 15,800 tonnes. In other words, since Calderon began his war on drugs, more Mexican drugs are on the market, not less.
There is no easy way out of this quagmire.
The National Police Force that Mexico’s last three presidents — Ernesto Zedillo, Vicente Fox and Calderpn — have tried to build is still far from ready to replace the Army in drug-enforcement tasks. US assistance, as a US General Accounting Office report made clear early this month, is barely trickling in. Indeed, by some accounts, only 2 percent of the projected US$1.3 billion in aid has been disbursed.
Perhaps the solution would be to proceed by default — gradually allow the drug war to vanish from TV screens and newspapers, and have its place taken by other wars — on poverty, on petty crime and for economic growth. This may not be ideal, but it is better than prolonging a fight that cannot be won.
Jorge Castaneda, former Mexican foreign minister, is professor of Politics and Latin American Studies at New York University.
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