European leaders led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will act swiftly to make the EU’s reform charter a reality after Ireland’s “yes” vote, despite the lone resistance of Czech President Vaclav Klaus.
The strong endorsement of the Lisbon treaty by the Irish, after eight years of divisive attempts to rewrite the EU’s rule book, has sparked the jockeying for position over the plum jobs that it creates, with former British prime minister Tony Blair now a clear favorite to become the first permanent EU president.
The posts of president of the council and that of a new foreign policy chief with enhanced powers are among the biggest changes under the treaty. But the appointments will not be made in isolation. Who gets what will be intricately linked to the share-out of portfolios in the new European Commission, which will be strongly debated in the coming weeks.
“In the end, it will be one large package which attempts to give every member state something to boast about,” an EU official said.
Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, the current EU president, is already canvassing names behind the scenes, trying to engineer a consensus on who should fill the two top posts.
Blair’s interest in becoming president has been Europe’s worst-kept secret for more than a year. One of the great ironies of Lisbon is that it was born at a time when European leaders were vowing — following the collapse of its predecessor, the Constitutional Treaty — to create a Europe “closer to the people.”
Yet its first official, permanent president of the council will be chosen in the least democratic of ways — behind closed doors by the 27 EU heads of state and government and without any of the candidates having campaigned before the court of public opinion.
“If you come out campaigning and saying you want it, that could be seen by heads of government as stepping out of line,” said a UK insider. “They see it as their call. A campaign would give your opponents an opportunity to mount their own campaign against you.”
So Blair has been running a non-campaign campaign for months. He has not said he wants the job, but neither has he said he does not. Friends have discreetly sounded out opinion on the diplomatic circuit on his behalf. Having reported back their qualified enthusiasm, he has allowed his hat to enter the ring without actively lobbing it in.
POLE POSITION
Headlines last week saying that Blair was in pole position to become president have been treated with suspicion by some British Labour MPs who want him to get the job, as well as by some commentators.
They believe they are part of a spoiling operation by a Murdoch press that is moving ever closer to David Cameron, leader of the British opposition Conservative party, and that such stories are a way to stir up opposition to the Blair candidacy.
However, the reality is that close supporters of Blair genuinely believe that he is, as one very senior figure put it, “pretty well-placed” and are now prepared to advance his case more actively. They know that few important decisions are reached in the EU, even in an expanded community of 27 member states, without a French-German seal of approval.
And British officials now feel that, following her re-election Merkel can afford to enthuse about a president Blair. During her election campaign it was difficult for Merkel to hint in any way that the former British prime minister might be the best candidate. There is still deep resentment among Germany’s political classes and its public at Blair’s support for the Iraq war, and he is seen as having failed to stamp his pro-European mark on UK policy when prime minister.
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