Though what the Japanese prime minister-elect said before the election was alarming, my prediction is that nothing much will change in Japan’s policy toward the US or Taiwan.
Yukio Hatoyama is chairman of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), a collection of anti-Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) factions whose ideology ranges from the extreme right to the extreme left.
The DPJ is even more fractured than the LDP. Before the election, a DPJ legislator jokingly said that if they were elected, their government would collapse within a week. Although this was an exaggeration, collapse within a few months is possible.
Japan has had no unified national strategy since the end of World War II. Its attitude and policies toward other Asian countries follow those of the US. Tokyo’s policy toward Taiwan will only change if Washington’s does. People say Japanese prime ministers after the war are experts in karaoke — Americans write songs and they sing them.
The danger is changes in US policy toward Asian in general and Taiwan in particular. Though there are only hints of a subconscious shift toward a China-centric Asian policy, even those hints are worrisome.
So far, the US continues to stress the central importance of Japan in Asia, but if there is any substance at all to hints of a “China-centric policy,” there will be huge change in Japan’s own Asian policy. Tokyo would have to set out on its own or become a junior ally of China.
The latter would be a very hard pill for Japanese to swallow.
More likely, Japan will become more nationalistic and militaristic. Going nuclear would be unavoidable if Japan wanted to maintain a balance of power with China. It’s difficult to imagine an Asian regional cooperative with China as the hegemon and Japan a junior partner.
This would trigger an Asian arms race involving Australia as a reluctant participant. Canberra could become Washington’s partner in the Asia-Pacific, just as it was during World War II.
Taiwan, with little power, would have to choose sides. I am not sure which side (Japan or China) the Taiwanese would choose, but either way it would become a vassal state and lose much of its independence — not a pretty picture.
Taiwan has to work hard to support Washington’s “Japan-centric Asian Policy,” emphasizing Taipei-Tokyo relations and the Taiwan-Japan-US alliance. Unfortunately, the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) isn’t inclined to do so.
It falls on Taiwanese, Taiwanese-Japanese and Taiwanese-Americans to try to influence these policies. It will be hard but not impossible.
Sebo Koh is a member of the Central Committee of the World United Formosans for Independence and the spokesman of World Taiwanese Congress.
When it became clear that the world was entering a new era with a radical change in the US’ global stance in US President Donald Trump’s second term, many in Taiwan were concerned about what this meant for the nation’s defense against China. Instability and disruption are dangerous. Chaos introduces unknowns. There was a sense that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) might have a point with its tendency not to trust the US. The world order is certainly changing, but concerns about the implications for Taiwan of this disruption left many blind to how the same forces might also weaken
As the new year dawns, Taiwan faces a range of external uncertainties that could impact the safety and prosperity of its people and reverberate in its politics. Here are a few key questions that could spill over into Taiwan in the year ahead. WILL THE AI BUBBLE POP? The global AI boom supported Taiwan’s significant economic expansion in 2025. Taiwan’s economy grew over 7 percent and set records for exports, imports, and trade surplus. There is a brewing debate among investors about whether the AI boom will carry forward into 2026. Skeptics warn that AI-led global equity markets are overvalued and overleveraged
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday announced that she would dissolve parliament on Friday. Although the snap election on Feb. 8 might appear to be a domestic affair, it would have real implications for Taiwan and regional security. Whether the Takaichi-led coalition can advance a stronger security policy lies in not just gaining enough seats in parliament to pass legislation, but also in a public mandate to push forward reforms to upgrade the Japanese military. As one of Taiwan’s closest neighbors, a boost in Japan’s defense capabilities would serve as a strong deterrent to China in acting unilaterally in the
Taiwan last week finally reached a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent, without stacking them on existing levies, from the 20 percent rate announced by US President Donald Trump’s administration in August last year. Taiwan also became the first country to secure most-favored-nation treatment for semiconductor and related suppliers under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act. In return, Taiwanese chipmakers, electronics manufacturing service providers and other technology companies would invest US$250 billion in the US, while the government would provide credit guarantees of up to US$250 billion to support Taiwanese firms
RSS