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US ‘experts’ on China have got it all wrong

When China isolated itself — or was isolated — little information about the country or its people was accessible. At the time, US China experts were scarce as they needed to understand Chinese characters and to have studied Chinese history and culture for a few years to obtain a reasonable understanding of the Chinese situation.

After former US president Richard Nixon opened a channel to China, the number of US China experts shot up. Various professionals such as businesspeople, politicians, academics and journalists went to China and gained a superficial understanding of the country by listening to swaggering locals. These so-called China experts could be called the “fast food” experts.

The “fast food” school of China experts holds to a few dogmas. First, China has a vast territory and lots of people, so the US must not make an enemy of it. It also argues that China offers unlimited business opportunities and that once it rises, it will settle old scores. China’s long period of decline was based on nationalism and adventurism abroad. Therefore, the belief goes, the US cannot afford to provoke China and instead must accommodate the Chinese government on all matters.

FRAGILE

During the administration of former US president Bill Clinton, Clark Randt, former US ambassador to China, worried about a Chinese collapse because of the impact a flood of Chinese refugees would have on Southeast Asia. In the same vein, in her 2007 book China: Fragile Superpower, former US deputy assistant secretary of state Susan Shirk revealed a similar attitude: China’s weakness had led to insecurity among the Chinese leadership and this could lead to the use of force against Taiwan in an attempt to fan nationalism to secure power.

Shirk’s book sees through China and its tricks and addresses China’s serious internal problems in an objective manner by saying that China is “externally strong but internally weak.” However, for commercial purposes, she made alarming statements in the first chapter of her book, saying that if China was strong, Taiwan would be in danger and that if China was weak, Taiwan would still be in danger.

Although she did not want to appear impetuous on political matters because of concerns for book sales in Taiwan, she asserted that economic integration with China would be beneficial to the majority of Taiwanese and that “it will reduce the obstacles facing Taiwan’s security.”

NORMALIZED

There is no question that economic exchanges between Taiwan and China should be normalized. But if integration means political compromise on Taiwan’s sovereignty and annexation by China, then how could it reduce Taiwan’s security problem? Ever since President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) took office, Chinese military invasion has not been one of Taiwan’s security problems: The problem has been the “peaceful annexation” of Taiwan by China.

Those US China experts should change the way they think.

Neither China’s peaceful rise nor collapse is a bad thing since such an anti-humanistic regime as China’s should be overthrown at any rate. If the Chinese leadership wanted to engage in an external adventure to distract attention from its serious internal situation, it would dig its own grave. Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) is not as stupid as those experts think.



James Wang is a senior media commentator.

TRANSLATED BY TED YANG
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