Tomorrow there’s a couple of large-ish protests in Taipei and Kaohsiung, in case you hadn’t heard. The kind that foreign missions warn could turn violent.
But my FOB (fresh off the BlackBerry) readers needn’t worry.
Take the get-together in Taipei: It’s a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rally, which means you get lots of old folk — even older than me — bussing in from the south together with their great grandchildren and maybe the odd local DPP rep to help carry and replenish their protest kit (bottled water, bamboo hat, boxes of betel nut and biandang).
You do get families going to these things, sometimes with their pets draped in the appropriate political colors. And a few youngsters turn up with the latest English-language propaganda puns on colored cardboard, wacky wigs, papier mache effigies and other creative objects of derision.
More pep squad than riotous mob.
The reason for this mobilization of the masses is the DPP thinks the first anniversary of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) ascent to office is the best time to rally its base and appeal to the disaffected who strayed from the party over the years.
I don’t think it will be very successful.
Right now there are two things that might get people marching: fears for national security and the state of the economy.
The former is a nasty paradox for the DPP. The prez is doing just about everything he can to prove that not only is detente with China lucrative in harsh economic times, but that it’s also a triumph of diplomatic strategy.
At the same time, warnings from the DPP and more radical elements on the growing military and political threat are anchored in the realm of the abstract, and will continue to be until there is a dramatic series of incidents that demonstrate China’s callousness toward ordinary people. Give Beijing credit: These days it is doing everything a Chicom can possibly do to avoid the appearance of obnoxiousness.
That leaves the economy. Rising joblessness is a powerful weapon for any opposition party, but the DPP is buggered by its longstanding indifference — if not outright suspicion — toward organized labor. It’s tough feigning outrage over forced leave or claiming you sympathize with the plight of the unemployed and the working poor when “defend labor rights” is at the bottom of your lengthy to-do list (between “clean the fridge” and “keep in touch with the Americans”).
So don’t expect to see subgroups of pissed-off jobless dudes arming themselves with sticks and stones tomorrow in preparation for an all-nighter with riot police. Said dudes are probably back home, surfing the Internet, listening to Rainie Yang (楊丞琳) on their iPods, swaying to the music, looking up Web sites for trendy labor brokers with names like “111111111111 Job Bank” and “2468 We Hire You Cut Rate” and thinking that they’re just one click away from a prosperous future.
Even the illegal 24-hour sit-in that will follow the rally is turning out to be a fizzer. It’s got Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) politicians so frantic that they’re grilling bureaucrats over the adequacy of traffic diversions.
If you want something resembling a riot in this town, you need a flesh and blood target that brings out the fanatical type. He also has to be a gormless Chicom with god-awful hair.
I could be wrong. Tomorrow might bring something dramatic and paradigm-busting. But that would require divine intervention, and the last time I looked, Taiwan’s resident Bodhisattvas all had KMT membership.
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