“Where is Angela?” is the question The Economist asked when French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso met to prepare a European economic stimulus plan without German Chancellor Merkel present. Indeed, Germany is currently the spoiler in the competition to provide billions to prevent a breakdown of the world economy. Why is Germany so hesitant when it comes to economic stimulus programs?
One popular theory is that, given the supply-side orientation of German economists, there is little sympathy for Keynesian, demand-oriented prescriptions. But no German economist has come out against an economic stimulus program, and many favor one. Whereas Keynesian theory has largely disappeared from economic textbooks in the US, it continues to be taught everywhere in Germany. German economists, in contrast to their American colleagues, never abandoned Keynesian policies as a means to combat demand deficits. Moreover, German politicians rarely heed the advice of German economists.
A second hypothesis is closer to the truth: The decline of economic activity in Germany thus far has not been as strong as in other countries. Germany did not have a real-estate bubble that threatened to burst, as did Britain, Ireland, Spain and France. Germany has only been indirectly affected — by the decline in worldwide demand for German products — which explains an important timing difference in the business cycle.
Whereas unemployment in the US has been rising for one-and-a-half years, Germany is enjoying its lowest unemployment rate in 16 years. The German construction industry and retailing are still stable, as the latest survey of the Ifo Institute shows, and the whole world is profiting from this stability as Germany is the second largest importer of goods and services after the US. While US imports are declining sharply, German imports are holding up — without any economic stimulus plan. This is why many Germans wonder whether the foreign criticism is fair.
To be sure, the world recession will hit Germany with full force. The Ifo Institute has forecast that GDP will contract by 2.2 percent this year. But the contraction will be primarily because of declining exports, a large portion of which consists of investment goods, as well as the drop in domestic equipment investment.
These are areas where there is not much that the state can do to help. It can cut taxes to stimulate consumption and it can invest in construction, but these sectors currently need little help, except perhaps for the automobile industry. This could, of course, quickly change. When the second-round effects hit the domestic sector in the course of this year, a stimulus program will be needed. From the German perspective, the best timing for such a program would be in autumn. If the money is spent now, the economy in some sectors could overheat, helping no one.
Paul Krugman, who has aimed massive criticism at Germany’s government, should keep this in mind. Krugman is an excellent economist. He is right in principle in demanding a major economic stimulus package from the German government that goes beyond the 35 billion euro (US$49 billion) already planned. But he should not ignore the time lags between the US and the German economic cycles. Germany should prepare its economic stimulus program now and implement it when the time comes.
A third hypothesis to explain Germany’s hesitancy is suspicion of the EU’s redistribution machinery. When Sarkozy and other EU leaders demand Germany’s participation in an economic stimulus and rescue package, one reason is that they expect Germany to again bear the lion’s share of the costs. For example, of the 5 billion euro extension of the Cohesion Funds approved by the European Parliament in December 2007, Germany received nothing, but it bears 20 percent of the costs.
Germans have always been enthusiastic proponents of the EU, not least because they hoped that a European identity would help compensate for their damaged national identity. So, whenever it came to restructuring the EU, they always accepted a level of influence that was small relative to their country’s size. Although Germany’s share of the EU population is 17 percent, it receives 13 percent of the voting rights in the EU Parliament. Its share in the more important Council of Ministers is only 8 percent, the same as that of the French, whose population share is 13 percent.
Former French president Jacques Chirac did not hesitate to justify this imbalance with a reference to World War II, which the Germans accepted. But their enthusiasm has limits. After all, aside from political underrepresentation, Germany’s annual contribution to the EU budget (most recently 7.4 billion euros) makes the country by far the largest net contributor. Germany finances 20 percent of the EU budget but receives only 12 percent of EU spending. Willingness could be exhausted if the EU budget is further expanded without reducing Germany’s net contribution and narrowing the gap between its financing and voting rights.
For these reasons, German reservations also extend to the European economic government that Sarkozy advocates, and that, again, would be financed more than proportionately with German money. Sarkozy regards an EU economic government as a way to preserve his leadership in the EU beyond France’s Council presidency, which ended on Wednesday. Although the Czech Republic assumed the EU presidency yesterday, this has not prevented the French president from convening a new EU summit under Sarkozy’s leadership in the first half of this year.
This affront will put not only Czech tolerance to the test, but also that of Merkel. In the end, she will probably give in to Sarkozy’s wishes to avoid endangering her chances of re-election in September because of a conflict with the French. But she will surely do so with clenched fists.
Hans-Werner Sinn is president of the Ifo Institute.COPYRIGHT: PROJECT SYNDICATE
Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) led a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan in late February. During their various meetings with Taiwan’s leaders, this delegation never missed an opportunity to emphasize the strength of their cross-party consensus on issues relating to Taiwan and China. Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi are leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Their instruction upon taking the reins of the committee was to preserve China issues as a last bastion of bipartisanship in an otherwise deeply divided Washington. They have largely upheld their pledge. But in doing so, they have performed the
It is well known that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambition is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation by unification of Taiwan, either peacefully or by force. The peaceful option has virtually gone out of the window with the last presidential elections in Taiwan. Taiwanese, especially the youth, are resolved not to be part of China. With time, this resolve has grown politically stronger. It leaves China with reunification by force as the default option. Everyone tells me how and when mighty China would invade and overpower tiny Taiwan. However, I have rarely been told that Taiwan could be defended to
It should have been Maestro’s night. It is hard to envision a film more Oscar-friendly than Bradley Cooper’s exploration of the life and loves of famed conductor and composer Leonard Bernstein. It was a prestige biopic, a longtime route to acting trophies and more (see Darkest Hour, Lincoln, and Milk). The film was a music biopic, a subgenre with an even richer history of award-winning films such as Ray, Walk the Line and Bohemian Rhapsody. What is more, it was the passion project of cowriter, producer, director and actor Bradley Cooper. That is the kind of multitasking -for-his-art overachievement that Oscar
Chinese villages are being built in the disputed zone between Bhutan and China. Last month, Chinese settlers, holding photographs of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), moved into their new homes on land that was not Xi’s to give. These residents are part of the Chinese government’s resettlement program, relocating Tibetan families into the territory China claims. China shares land borders with 15 countries and sea borders with eight, and is involved in many disputes. Land disputes include the ones with Bhutan (Doklam plateau), India (Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin) and Nepal (near Dolakha and Solukhumbu districts). Maritime disputes in the South China