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Who is calling the shots in Taiwan?

‘So why is the Ma administration in such an unseemly haste to hitch Taiwan’s wagon to a wayward Chinese engine?’

Has the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) thought through its headlong embrace of China? The deals to expand relations covering shipping, air transport and postal services might look like progress but the question is: who is calling the shots?

It is certainly not the Ma government. So far, Beijing has not moved an inch in terms of acknowledging Taiwan’s identity. Describing the advance in relations, China’s top negotiator, Chen Yunlin (陳雲林), called it “a crystallization of the joint efforts of many compatriots across the Strait.”

In other words, it is a process of integrating Taiwan into China.

China’s infiltration into Taiwan through such expanded contacts will be a nightmare to monitor and regulate. From the exchanges between the two sides so far, one doesn’t get a sense that the Ma administration is seeking to guard Taiwan’s sovereign identity.

The sense rather is that the Ma administration is acting as a facilitator. And any opposition to this is being harshly handled, sometimes draconian measures have been used against political dissent.

There are even fears that there might be a concerted attempt to undermine democracy in Taiwan to promote Beijing’s agenda.

The Ma government has a mandate to govern but not to diminish or barter away Taiwan’s sovereignty. The will of the people should determine Taiwan’s future.

It is pertinent to remember that most polls have indicated an overwhelming popular desire to maintain Taiwan’s distinct political status.

Now that a series of deals about expanding services have been concluded, the two sides will obviously move on to the political agenda.

Will China enter into a peace treaty? That would seem highly unlikely, suggesting a relationship of sovereign equality between the two sides that is anathema to Beijing.

Will China allow Taipei some space on the international stage in forums like the UN and its agencies? Again, it would seem highly unlikely.

The arguments generally given in favor of greater integration and eventual unification with China are three-fold.

First is the argument of a common and shared culture and language.

By that logic, Australia and New Zealand, which not only share a common language and heritage but also have geographical proximity, should have merged into one country long ago.

In the Middle East, where people in most countries speak Arabic and share a common Islamic heritage, national identities are as important as ever.

And such examples can be multiplied.

Taiwan has a distinct political identity and is a middle-sized nation of more than 20 million people, about as much as Australia and about five times the population of New Zealand.

The second argument favoring Taiwan’s integration is to further peace and harmony across the Taiwan Strait.

This again doesn’t seem terribly smart and convincing. If in the process of buying peace, a country has to surrender its sovereignty, the world would be a very turbulent and unhappy place.

In such a world, very few small countries will be able to maintain their independence and sovereignty when faced with aggression from a powerful neighbor.

The third argument is to expand Taiwan’s economic prosperity by throwing in its lot with China. However, so far, despite all the fanfare of moving in with China, concrete results in terms of economic advantage are not yet apparent.

Besides, Taiwan hasn’t done badly without needing to be submerged into China. It has been one of Asia’s most successful economies.

So why is the Ma administration in such an unseemly haste to hitch Taiwan’s wagon to a wayward Chinese engine?

Is there a sense that Taiwan’s time as an independent political entity has run out? With China so powerful and the US mired in the Middle East, Taiwan might seem so vulnerable that a deal with China seems the only alternative.

That is not necessarily the case. Indeed, if the US interest in Taiwan were to slacken (and don’t bet on it, with president-elect Barack Obama keen on revamping US strategic priorities), Beijing won’t have to fear that Taiwan could be turned into a US base of sorts to threaten China.

Taiwan will hardly be a threat to China.

Taiwan indeed can remain as a successful pilot project for democracy in China at some future time if the latter were to descend into social instability.

A close relationship between China and Taiwan can develop as it has between Australia and New Zealand, with neither fearing the other while partaking of all the benefits of a shared heritage.

The Ma administration needs to be a bit more creative in its dealings with China. It doesn’t need to crawl when all it needs is a steady walk, assuming that it wants to save Taiwan from China.



Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
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