Most Taiwanese think signing an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with Beijing will do little to improve the economy and lower unemployment, but the trade deal is likely to boost the stock market, a prediction market said yesterday.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability that an ECFA would boost the TAIEX if it were signed is NT$75, according to bidders, National Chengchi University’s Center for Prediction Market said.
In other words, share prices on the fifth day after the proposed accord is signed are likely to be higher than those on the last trading day before it is signed, the center said.
Bidders also predicted that the odds of the TAIEX reaching 10,000 points this year were 33.3 percent if the ECFA is signed and only 15 percent if it is not.
“In other words, the ECFA would likely have very little impact on the TAIEX reaching 10,000 points this year,” the center said.
The probability that per capita GDP would exceed US$18,000 this year after an ECFA is signed was 12.2 percent, against 10 percent if it was not signed. The center said the prediction suggested that an ECFA would make a limited contribution to Taiwan’s economic growth.
Official statistics showed that Taiwan’s per capita GDP was US$16,442 last year.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics has forecast that the figure will jump to US$17,660 this year.
While Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) has vowed to keep the unemployment below 5 percent this year, bidders predicted that the prospect of unemployment exceeding 5 percent in December was 78 percent.
On an ECFA’s impact on Taiwan’s bid to sign free-trade agreements (FTA) with other countries, the center said trading on the issue was insignificant so it was hard to analyze.
However, judging from similar trade pacts, the odds that Taiwan would ink an FTA with either Japan, the US, EU or ASEAN countries this year were between 3 percent and 17 percent, the center said.
The administration hopes to ink the cross-strait trade deal before July, so bidders predicted that the likelihood the planned pact would become a reality during the second quarter was 50 percent. The prospect fell to 31 percent during the third quarter and 9 percent for the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Liu Te-shun (劉德勳) yesterday brushed aside Beijing’s political rhetoric about an ECFA, emphasizing the pact was economic in nature.
The council said Beijing’s political position or proposal was consistent and understandable, but had no relation to the ECFA negotiations.
“We hope [China] will empathize with us because we also have a political position,” he said. “There must be room for both sides to work together.”
Liu made the remarks in response to a statement by Wang Yi (王毅), director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, on Wednesday, urging the two sides to jointly oppose “Taiwan independence” and insist on the so-called “1992 consensus.”
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
CHINA POLICY: At the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China, the two sides issued strong support for Taiwan and condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea The US and EU issued a joint statement on Wednesday supporting Taiwan’s international participation, notably omitting the “one China” policy in a departure from previous similar statements, following high-level talks on China and the Indo-Pacific region. The statement also urged China to show restraint in the Taiwan Strait. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and European External Action Service Secretary-General Stefano Sannino cochaired the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China and the sixth US-EU Indo-Pacific Consultations from Monday to Tuesday. Since the Indo-Pacific consultations were launched in 2021, references to the “one China” policy have appeared in every statement apart from the
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from