China has aimed far more missiles at Taiwan than previously reported, according to US officials with access to military intelligence. This disclosure comes as China enters a troubling and potentially dangerous time intensified by recent anti-Chinese protests in Tibetan areas.
The officials say China has 1,400 ballistic missiles targeting Taiwan.
That is 40 percent more than earlier reports that gave an approximate figure of 1,000 missiles. The Defense Department, in its recent report on Chinese military power, said 990 to 1,070 missiles were pointed at Taiwan, including variants "with improved ranges, accuracies, and payloads."
The commander of US forces in the Pacific and Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, told Congress earlier this month: "The threat that China poses is increasing, in my opinion, for the folks who are our friends in Taiwan."
In response to a question from a congressman, he said China's forces are developing capabilities causing "concern as it presents itself as a threat to Taiwan."
While not delving into operational plans to respond to the threat from China, Keating said his Pacific Command was "adequately resourced" to meet US requirements.
He pointed to two aircraft carrier battle groups, six B-52 and three B-2 bombers deployed to Guam in the western Pacific, and a new addition to the Pacific Fleet, the submarine Ohio, which is armed with 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Before the incidents involving Tibetans, a period of relative calm had been expected until the Olympic Games in Beijing in August since China sees that event as proclaiming its arrival as a world political, economic and military power.
After the Olympics would come a time during which China might take advantage of Taiwanese and US preoccupations to move against Taiwan.
The violence in Tibet and consequent international criticism of China's crackdown on human rights may have already opened that window of danger.
Said a longtime China watcher: "It depends on how bloody-minded the Chinese will be."
In the minds of Chinese leaders, Tibet and Taiwan are linked as they are both seen as separatists seeking to escape the rule of Beijing.
To a lesser extent, the same is true of Muslims in the western province of Xinjiang and of ethnic Koreans north of the Yalu River in northeastern China. Any move toward autonomy or independence would be crushed ruthlessly.
Wallace Gregson, a retired Marine lieutenant general and former commander of Marine forces in the Pacific, said in an e-mail message: "The Chinese regime will take whatever action is necessary to stay in power."
After president-elect Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is inaugurated on May 20, it will take him several months to organize his government, giving China a chance to move against Taiwan. Of the basic policies Ma has already set, most will displease the Chinese. While he had promised not to seek independence for Taiwan, he has also ruled out unification with China and demanded no use of military force by either side.
Ma wants China to give Taiwan "international space," meaning not to interfere with Taiwan's efforts to gain diplomatic recognition from other nations and to enter international organizations such as the UN.
"I believe the world is big enough to accommodate both Taiwan and the mainland," he said.
He has proposed a peace agreement with China, which would require Beijing to recognize the government in Taipei as legitimate.
Ma says that he will reform Taiwan's defenses, including rebuilding ties with the US that have been strained under President Chen Shui-bian (
US President George W. Bush, in a message congratulating Ma on his election last Sunday, said: "Once again, Taiwan has demonstrated the strength and vitality of its democracy."
A pillar of US bipartisan foreign policy for decades has been to stand by other democracies.
Bush is a lame duck whose administration is consumed with Iraq and the war on terror, with little attention on China and Taiwan.
That will become more so with the coming US election. After the new president takes office on Jan. 20 next year he or she will need several months to organize an administration.
All told, while Taiwanese and Americans have their attention on internal politics, the Chinese, goaded by Taiwanese and Tibetan resistance, may decide they have an opportunity to strike. That could turn out to be a monumental mistake, a miscalculation that would trigger unpredictable consequences.
Richard Halloran is a writer based in Hawaii.
Editor's note: Johnny Neihu is on leave.
When Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping (習近平) wakes up one morning and decides that his People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can win a war to conquer Taiwan, that is when his war will begin. To ensure that Xi never gains that confidence it is now necessary for the United States to shed any notions of “forbearance” in arms sales to Taiwan. Largely because they could guarantee military superiority on the Taiwan Strait, US administrations from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama practiced “forbearance” — pre-emptive limitation of arms sales to Taiwan — in hopes of gaining diplomatic leverage with Beijing. President Ronald
As the US marks one month under the leadership of President Joe Biden, the conversations around Taiwan have shifted. As I discussed in a Taipei Times article (“No more talk of ‘bargaining chips,’” Jan. 30, page 8), with the end of former US president Donald Trump’s administration — and all of the unpredictability associated with it — Taiwan would not have to worry about being used as a “bargaining chip” in some sort of deal with the People’s Republic of China. The talk of Taiwan being used as a bargaining chip never subsided over those four years, but under Biden, those
The Canadian parliament on Monday passed a motion saying that China’s human rights abuses against the country’s Uighur Muslim population in Xinjiang constitute “genocide.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has so far avoided using the word genocide in regard to Xinjiang, but if he did, it would begin to generate solidarity among G7 nations on the issue — which is something Trudeau has called for. Former US president Donald Trump used the word genocide regarding Xinjiang before leaving office last month, and members of US President Joe Biden’s administration have been pushing for him to make the same declaration, a Reuters report
While China’s abrupt ban on imports of pineapples from Taiwan is malicious, it is a problem that the government can manage. However, the ban’s real aim might be to test Taiwan’s status in the eyes of US President Joe Biden’s administration. Beijing cited biosecurity as the reason for its ban, which is to start tomorrow, an untenable assertion, as 99.79 percent of Taiwan’s pineapples exported to China since last year passed customs tests. The timing is intriguing. The ban was announced just before harvesting is to begin; after Biden ordered a review of supply chains of chips and other strategic materials; and
RSS