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Can Ma work cross-strait miracles?

As expected, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has won the presidency. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was worn out and didn't seem to be going anywhere, except backward. The economy under President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) had faltered, and there was a stench of corruption enveloping his family and cronies. Chen also had the "distinction" of being disliked both in Washington and Beijing. Indeed, Beijing hated him on a par with the Dalai Lama.

In other words, Ma's election victory has created a sense of relief in both China and the US. Washington worried about Chen's presumed propensity to provoke China. The US hopes that, under Ma's presidency, China and Taiwan will get along better, thus removing a regional flashpoint that has the potential of involving the US in confrontation with China.

As US President George W. Bush put it: "I believe the election provides a fresh opportunity to reach out and engage one another in peacefully resolving their differences."

Bush also pointed out that: "The maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the welfare of the people on Taiwan remain of profound importance to the United States." How this all work out remains to be seen.

One thing is certain, though, that Chen's legacy of fostering a distinct Taiwanese identity is here to stay. Ma's election-time statements on Tibet and the Olympics would seem to suggest that Taipei might not do China's bidding. He has criticized Beijing's repression in Tibet, emphasizing that Taiwan might not participate in the Beijing Olympics, if things get worse in Tibet.

Ma would like to sign a peace accord with Beijing, but China would have to remove missiles targeting Taiwan.

Going by these utterances, Ma might prove a tougher nut to crack for Beijing than it thought. Or Beijing might dismiss his utterances as simple grandstanding to win the election.

But if Ma means to be assertive with China, the relationship is unlikely to be as smooth as everyone is led to believe.

For now, though, Beijing is simply relieved to see the back of Chen and his DPP. With the election over, the hard task of dealing with China will begin. And if Ma is serious that "we will not negotiate the issue of reunification with the mainland," it will be interesting to see how China will react.

Of course, to mollify China, Ma has also said that his administration will not "support Taiwan's de jure independence." He believes that within the broad concept of "one China," both sides might be free to interpret it in their own way. In other words, Taipei will seek to deal with the political side of the relationship through creative ambiguity.

That means Taiwan will maintain its identity and de facto sovereign status without challenging the broad concept of "one China" -- a status quo of sorts.

Ma might have his own reasons to believe that China will fall for this, though it didn't in the past. Either Ma is overestimating his reach or China somehow might agree to accommodate him.

There is a view that, after the gyrations of the Chen period, Beijing will settle for anything short of overt independence for Taiwan. But, so far, there is nothing to suggest that Beijing will settle for creative ambiguity on the question of Taiwan's status.

For instance, while welcoming Ma's election, the Chinese media reportedly referred to him as "leader of the Taiwan region." Indeed, there is nothing to suggest either that Beijing will consider a peace accord with the new administration.

Ma believes that his pragmatic approach to China, based on a wide-range of initiatives like developing a European-style common market, establishing direct air, sea and mail links, fostering tourism and so on, will generate enough momentum to make the relationship work. Above all, he seems to believe that after Chen, China will find him a breath of fresh air.

However, Beijing might not find much comfort in some of his statements. For instance, he reportedly said: "I have been a long-term anti-communist [and] I also recognize that mainland China is a threat to Taiwan's security, with nearly 1,000 missiles deployed against us."

For Ma, China is also "an opportunity for Taiwan's economy." Taiwan would, therefore, "need to minimize the first and maximize the second." How this juxtaposition of security threat and business opportunity would be reconciled is left unclear.

One can only hope that Ma has a clear strategy to get the most out of Taiwan's difficult relationship with China.

Having voted him into power, Taiwanese have high expectations for Ma. Will he be Taiwan's political Houdini? Time will tell.

Sushil Seth is an Australian-based writer.
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