Sun, Feb 03, 2008 - Page 9 News List

The currency traitors

Keeping the global economy running smoothly will require more than China expanding demand and allowing real, effective exchange rate appreciation. Oil exporters, Japan, the euro zone and the US have a lot of work to do, too

By Simon Johnson and Jonathan Ostry

Everyone wants economic stability, and many are reluctant to abandon today what gave them stability yesterday. But trying to obtain stability from rigidity is illusory. The stability of the international financial system today depends on the willingness of countries with rigid exchange rates to allow greater flexibility.

In the aftermath of the international financial crisis of 1997 and 1998, many emerging markets found themselves -- through currency depreciation, rapid productivity gains, or both -- highly competitive. Countries that ran significant current-account surpluses, built up large reserves, and fixed (or heavily managed) their exchange rates in order to support the first two objectives that appeared to secure external stability.

The irony is that the crisis of 1997and 1998 was one in which a particular system of exchange-rate pegs failed when capital flowed out. Yet, in many ways, accumulating reserves worked better than anyone could have imagined -- countries found they could withstand considerable shocks and growth was impressive both domestically and globally. So, within a few years, many countries concluded their pegs could work fine if supported by big enough war chests of official reserves. A new type of order emerged in the world's exchange rate system.

There were, of course, some less desirable spillover effects on others. If a considerable fraction of the world economy wants to run a current-account surplus (by 2006, this included much of emerging Asia, most oil exporters, and Japan), an equal share of the world economy must run a deficit. In the period after 1998, the US provided most of the entire required deficit.

As long as US assets were attractive to residents of surplus countries (or there was an acceptable chain of investments from surplus countries that ended in the US), these accumulations of reserves were sustainable. The IMF worried a great deal about what would happen when this chain broke -- and the eventual break was, of course, more a matter of arithmetic than economics. The US current-account deficit can persist above roughly 3 percent of GDP only if unrealistic assumptions are made about the share of US assets that the rest of the world is willing to hold.

The policy plans announced by China, the euro area, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the US last spring -- in the context of the IMF's Multilateral Consultation on global imbalances -- represent the international community's response to the rising risks. The US is to reduce its deficit, with the surplus countries proposing sensible steps to bring down their surpluses in ways that support global growth.

The sense of urgency in these discussions has increased in recent months, as the global situation has grown more complex. Specifically, problems in the US housing sector have, since summer, undermined confidence in securitized assets. The net result has been to shift global portfolio preferences in ways that have affected some exchange rates significantly.

The US dollar has depreciated in a way that helps global adjustment and fortunately does not disrupt the US government securities market; long-term rates are in fact down from July, so adjustment has been "orderly." Yet the pattern of exchange-rate movements in the rest of the world has been largely unrelated to existing current-account positions.

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