Taiwan's first legislative elections under the new single-member district, two-vote system have produced a revamped legislature, with the number of seats cut by half from 225 to 113. As expected, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won an absolute majority and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered significant losses.
With the two biggest parties holding almost all of the legislative seats, Taiwan is now firmly placed among countries with a two-party system.
In recent decades, a trend of electoral reform has swept the globe, with more than 30 countries choosing to combine a majority system with a proportional representation system to create a mixed electoral system.
In line with this trend, Taiwan has implemented a double ballot system similar to Japan's. Under this system, 30 percent of seats are elected through a party proportional system (the legislator-at-large seats, which have a 5 percent threshold), while the remaining 70 percent are elected by geographical district. These new structures therefore do not benefit minor parties.
The KMT is the main beneficiary of the new system. Many voters are dissatisfied with the government's performance over the past four years, and KMT candidates have tended to be better than DPP candidates at dealing with voters and handling grassroots issues. The KMT is also more adept at mobilizing voters.
This situation resembles that enjoyed by the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan after electoral reforms were introduced in 1996.
The KMT's legislative victory is also likely to build strong momentum for its presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou (
It is also worth noting that both referendums failed to pass the 50 percent threshold because of the KMT's campaign to boycott them at the end of the campaign period.
This result raises the question of whether the party will campaign against the two UN membership referendums to be held in tandem with the presidential election.
Vociferous calls for a boycott of these referendums are certain to emanate from the pan-blue camp -- the KMT will argue that the failure of the DPP-initiated referendum will ease tension in US-China-Taiwan relations -- while the DPP is certain to make its UN referendum the focus of Hsieh's campaign.
It can be assumed therefore that the referendums and the unification/independence issue will become the focus of political debate in Taiwan once more in the run-up to the presidential election.
Although the KMT and the DPP make up a large majority in the new legislature that meets for the first time on Feb. 1, this does not imply that the two parties will monopolize the legislative agenda.
Because the threshold for forming a legislative caucus has been changed to three legislative seats and every party caucus, regardless of size, will hold a veto over party negotiations, the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union, with its four seats, will have bargaining power with the two major parties.
The biggest difference between Taiwan's legislature and the parliaments in Western democracies is that although the KMT holds an absolute legislative majority, it will not be able to independently set the legislative agenda.
The legislative elections may be over, but it is the March 22 presidential election that will more powerfully determine Taiwan's political direction. With their emphasis on constituency interests and management of grassroots issues, the legislative elections are more a prelude to the face-off between the pan-green and pan-blue camps.
This is instead the beginning of the election campaign for the presidential election, and one that will be filled with rancor over the issues of independence/unification and ethnic identity.
Wang Yeh-lih is a professor of political science at Tunghai University. Translated by Perry Svensson
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry