How should we assess the state of transatlantic relations nowadays? With a nod to Wall Street, we can say that the Alliance is up, Europe is flat and the US is clearly down.
The Alliance is "up" for one key reason: the warming of France's relations with the US following Nicolas Sarkozy's election as French president. For the first time since Charles de Gaulle established the Fifth Republic, France's priority is no longer to live in opposition to the US.
The signs of this shift are profound, even spectacular. From a toughening of France's position on Iran to a real warming of relations with Israel, not to mention symbolic gestures like Sarkozy's summer vacation in the US, or Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's arrival in Baghdad, this is a New France, one seriously considering a return to NATO's integrated military structure.
France's shift is the result of both political calculus and deeply felt emotion. For Sarkozy, the French are not anti-Americans, but simply anti-Bush. In his willingness to break with the past -- in particular with Jacques Chirac's legacy -- and in adding a global spin to his "mandate for change," Sarkozy is paving the way for the post-Bush US that will soon be here.
He knows that the "return of France" as an influential actor in Europe presupposes a France that is closer to the US, which will automatically bring France closer to Germany and Britain, not to mention Poland and Italy. Emotionally, too, "Sarkozy the American, Sarkozy the doer," who wants to be judged by his actions, tends to see himself as a Gallic incarnation of the American dream. He is the son of immigrants, the outsider whose rise to the top is living proof of French openness.
ATTITUDE CHANGE
In the US, too, the attitude towards the alliance with Europe has changed mightily. The failure in Iraq, the risk of an "Iraqization" of Afghanistan, and Russia's newfound assertiveness have moved the US from the arrogant diffidence that characterized most of Bush's presidency to a rediscovery of the Alliance's value.
The US needs allies, and is not preoccupied by their potential independent strength. As one top US diplomat put it, "The last worry I have when I wake up at three in the morning is that Europe is becoming too strong."
But rapprochement between France and the US should not hide other realities. First, in Afghanistan, NATO is in danger of suffering its first military defeat. Where will the new troops that are needed come from? And a key member of the Alliance, Turkey, may be about to embark in a dangerous military adventure in Kurdish northern Iraq.
Second, one cannot speak of NATO without making noting that the Alliance's twin pillars -- Europe and the US -- are not in great shape. If Europe is "flat," one reason is Sarkozy. He may be encouraging news for the Alliance, his European policy is a source of worry for Europe. While Sarkozy claims that Europe is his priority, his methods seem to contradict his intentions.
The difficult personal chemistry he has with German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reinforced by his constant attacks on the European Central Bank and its president, Jean-Claude Trichet. One cannot simultaneously defend the Alliance in the name of Europe and weaken Europe with fits of populism and economic nationalism.
new key players
Europe's three key new leaders -- British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Merkel, and Sarkozy -- all belong to a generation that is no longer emotionally moved by the project of European integration. Their links with Europe -- if they exist at all -- are at best rational, not emotional. But will cool rationality be enough to create a European security pillar within the context of the Alliance?
As for the US, it is "down" in terms of both "soft" ideological power and "hard" military power. The US remains by far the world's strongest country, particularly in military terms, but it is confronted with fundamental questions about the use and utility of force at a time when power is relative.
Today, Americans and Europeans alike must demonstrate modesty. Unlike when the Alliance was created, a multi-polar world system has taken shape, in which the West's demographic and economic share has fallen, and in which it must now compete with successful authoritarian models such as China or even Russia.
In this new context, solidarity is as crucial as ever. Opinion about the US remains largely negative in Europe, and will remain so at least until the US presidential election next year. Likewise, US perceptions of France and of Europe are only slowly improving.
It is only by respecting our common values and not exacerbating our differences that the West will be able to reinvent itself. The Alliance may be "up," but its outlook remains uncertain.
Dominique Moisi, a founder and Senior Adviser at Ifri (French Institute for International Relations), is currently a professor at the College of Europe in Natolin, Warsaw.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Two sets of economic data released last week by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) have drawn mixed reactions from the public: One on the nation’s economic performance in the first quarter of the year and the other on Taiwan’s household wealth distribution in 2021. GDP growth for the first quarter was faster than expected, at 6.51 percent year-on-year, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.93 percent and higher than the agency’s February estimate of 5.92 percent. It was also the highest growth since the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded 8.07 percent, DGBAS data showed. The growth
In the intricate ballet of geopolitics, names signify more than mere identification: They embody history, culture and sovereignty. The recent decision by China to refer to Arunachal Pradesh as “Tsang Nan” or South Tibet, and to rename Tibet as “Xizang,” is a strategic move that extends beyond cartography into the realm of diplomatic signaling. This op-ed explores the implications of these actions and India’s potential response. Names are potent symbols in international relations, encapsulating the essence of a nation’s stance on territorial disputes. China’s choice to rename regions within Indian territory is not merely a linguistic exercise, but a symbolic assertion
More than seven months into the armed conflict in Gaza, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to take “immediate and effective measures” to protect Palestinians in Gaza from the risk of genocide following a case brought by South Africa regarding Israel’s breaches of the 1948 Genocide Convention. The international community, including Amnesty International, called for an immediate ceasefire by all parties to prevent further loss of civilian lives and to ensure access to life-saving aid. Several protests have been organized around the world, including at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and many other universities in the US.
In the 2022 book Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, academics Hal Brands and Michael Beckley warned, against conventional wisdom, that it was not a rising China that the US and its allies had to fear, but a declining China. This is because “peaking powers” — nations at the peak of their relative power and staring over the precipice of decline — are particularly dangerous, as they might believe they only have a narrow window of opportunity to grab what they can before decline sets in, they said. The tailwinds that propelled China’s spectacular economic rise over the past