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Editorial: The Olympics won't protect Taiwan

With the 2008 Beijing Olympics fast approaching, speculation abounds about the potential impact of the games on cross-strait relations.

It goes without saying that a successful, incident-free Olympics in Beijing is a top priority for the Chinese government. However, it would be naive to assume that Beijing would even consider adjusting its policy toward Taiwan -- even temporarily -- to improve its image ahead of the games.

It is no secret that the Chinese government sees the 2008 Olympics as an opportunity to promote itself as a modern, sophisticated and international China, and one of the most influential countries in the world in terms of political clout.

The amount of resources and the level of mobilization seen in preparation for the games demonstrates China's determination to make this event a huge success.

In light of this, some political analysts have suggested that the period immediately preceding the 2008 Olympics would be ideal timing for Taiwan to declare de jure independence.

They argue that Beijing would not dare to invade Taiwan then because such an act would incur the anger of the international community and jeopardize the success of their dream of wooing the world in Beijing next year. It would seem this thought has crossed others' minds as well. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week cautioned Taiwan not to take advantage of the Beijing Olympics to declare formal independence.

There is probably some truth to their theory. Until the Olympics are finished, Beijing would probably think twice before attacking Taiwan. It is understandable that political commentators believe Beijing would not be able to confront Taiwan's declaration of de jure independence. This probably also explains why no major disagreements have erupted between Taiwan and China over sensitive issues such as the route for the relay of the Olympic torch. No doubt many would have expected China to use this opportunity to emphasize its claim over Taiwan. On the contrary, a tactful consensus has reportedly been reached and what might have been a drawn-out issue with an aggressive undertone was resolved amicably.

Regardless, the idea that China would turn a blind eye to de jure independence is too optimistic. That Taiwan should be a province of China is just as important to China as wooing the international community. Moreover, Taiwan is important to China for the very same reason that the Olympics are important to it -- nationalism, a vivid image of a Great China in days gone by. For most of the 20th century, the Chinese have been tormented and enraged by the idea that China lost its former glory after the end of the imperial era.

China's victim mentality is so strong that to this day -- over half a century after the end of World War II -- the episode of Japan's invasion of China remains a blistering sore that constantly affects Sino-Japanese relations. The 2008 Olympics and Taiwan are important to China because both are part of Beijing's ultimate goal of recovering China's lost glory.

Thinking that China would prioritize the success of the Olympics over preventing Taiwan's de jure independence comes from a lack of understanding of China's motivation.
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