In the wake of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the US forged ahead with alliances throughout Russian-dominated Central Asia, but five years later the tide has turned again.
At first, the US push into Central Asia appeared to have few limits. Washington established military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan from where it could easily strike Afghanistan, while Russia, the longtime regional master, could only look on.
Kazakhstan, another ex-Soviet republic, even sent a small unit to join the coalition occupying Iraq.
These alliances in the name of Washington's "war on terror" made for some unusual bedfellows.
Not only did former communist states welcome US troops, but Washington ignored the region's authoritarianism, including what human rights experts describe as outright repression in Uzbekistan.
"But this period did not last long and it ended as soon as the United States reverted to its other agenda -- the mission to spread democracy throughout the world," said Dosym Satpaiyev, from the Risk Assessment Group.
"In five years, [US] influence in Central Asia has developed incredibly and now we are seeing a major reversal," he said.
A turning point, Satpaiyev said, was the bloody repression in May last year in the eastern Uzbek town of Andijan, where human rights organizations say several hundred people were gunned down by troops.
Washington and its European allies piled pressure on Tashkent, while the Uzbek government claimed that the trouble in Andijan had been stirred up by the US and Islamist militants.
Soon after, Tashkent ordered the closing of the US base on its soil and expelled a number of US-funded non-profit groups.
Russia swiftly began to restore its temporarily lost links.
"Moscow profited from the situation after having been forced for four years to watch its influence collapse along its borders," a Western diplomat in Tashkent said on condition of anonymity.
Adding to Washington's worries, Kyrgyzstan began to backtrack on its support, joining the rest of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- in July last year with a call for an end to the presence of US troops in Central Asia.
Only after negotiating a contract for the US air base near Bishkek worth US$150 million did Kyrgyzstan relent.
"The Americans will never admit it, but the closing of the Uzbek base was a terrible blow for them in Afghanistan. They had to do anything to stay in Kyrgyzstan," said a European diplomat, asking not to be named.
In the meantime, Washington is nurturing its looser alliance with oil-rich Kazakhstan, the richest and most stable country in the region.
US Vice President Dick Cheney visited in May and praised President Nursultan Nazarbayev's record, despite what many analysts say is his authoritarian style. Nazarbayev is due to visit the US this month for the first time in five years.
There are even signs of a softening on Uzbekistan. The State Department's assistant secretary for South and Central Asia, Richard Boucher, visited last month. So did Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, a US ally.
"Washington believes now that it is more important to stabilize Afghanistan and counter Russia than to isolate Uzbekistan," the European diplomat said.
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