Four-and-a-half years have elapsed since the Bush administration approved a robust package of weapons for sale to Taiwan. Except for the Kidd destroyers and some radar systems, the bulk of the package has been stalled in the Procedure Committee of the Legislative Yuan. The bill cannot even be put on the agenda of the legislature for discussion.
US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and former deputy Defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz have expressed displeasure about this turn of events. When former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairwoman Therese Shaheen visited Taipei in January she said the deal was crucial in improving US-Taiwan relations -- Taiwan needed to demonstrate that it was determined to defend itself. In September, Edward Ross, a senior Pentagon official said: "As the lone superpower, our interests are plentiful and our attention short. We cannot help defend you if you cannot defend yourself."
More recently Dennis Hickey warned: "Taiwan ... should not degenerate into a pitiful spineless jellyfish ... jeopardizing national security for political gain is outrageous. Pass the arms bill now" ("Don't play games with nation's security," Nov. 19, page 8).
The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) does not legally obligate the US to help defend Taiwan if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) attacks. President George W. Bush's 2001 promise to help defend Taiwan "whatever it took" has been diluted considerably since then.
The PLA has developed guided missiles specifically designed to disable US carriers. PLA naval and air forces can complicate any US effort to intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict. Unless Taiwan demonstrates a clear determination to fight for its sovereignty, the US may decide that it is not feasible to defend a spineless Taiwan, seemingly willing to surrender its independent existence.
Aside from blocking the arms bill, the legislature has also been cutting defense expenditures for the past decade. The armed forces are stuck with increasingly obsolete equipment, such as the World War II era submarines . This state of affairs depresses morale.
Yet lawmakers have blocked the arms bill almost 40 times. By early July President Chen Shui-bian (
In February, Chen made his infamous 10-point pact with People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong, in return for Soong's promise that the PFP would support the arms bill. But Chen was fooled. When Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
There are a number of reasons. The plan-blue camp is a disloyal opposition. They want to paralyze the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government so it may not have any credible achievement to run on in the 2008 presidential election. Their mission is peaceful unification of Taiwan with China through subversion of the duly elected government.
China objects to Taiwan's purchase of US weapons. So the pan-blues obstruct the arms bill in order to undermine the people's confidence in the government, weaken Taiwan's military forces and curry favor with Beijing.
US unhappiness with this impasse is understandable but blaming Taiwan or the government is not helpful. Despite its preoccupation with the Iraq war and domestic political problems, the Bush administration must pay closer attention to the rapidly changing situation in Taiwan. Bush's goals are that there be no war in the Taiwan Strait and that neither China nor Taiwan act unilaterally to change the status quo.
But the status quo is steadily being eroded in two ways. First, the PLA continues to add to the number of missiles targeting Taiwan and to prepare for a potential blitzkrieg against Taiwan. The military imbalance makes the status quo increasingly untenable.
Second, the collusion between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the pan-blue alliance to usurp the government's authority, eg, through the attempt to enact a peace promotion bill, and Chen's ineptness in handling this open rebellion has now created a grave crisis for Taiwan's survival as an independent democracy.
Peaceful unification is now being achieved by stealth, through unilateral incremental dismantling of Taiwan's political system, economic infrastructure, diplomatic relations and military strength.
The US must understand the subversive nature of the pan-blue camp. It is an anti-democracy, anti-US and anti-Taiwan force bent on seizing power so it can claim credit for "returning Taiwan to the bosom of the motherland."
What is to be done?
In Taiwan, the government should publicize the names of the notorious 18 legislators so their constituents can lodge protests against their unpatriotic behavior. The government can also apply pressure by granting or denying pork-barrel projects in the legislators' districts.
After all, if Taiwan were to fall into CCP hands, none of these misguided legislators are going to be rewarded by Beijing. China will not trust those who betrayed the Taiwanese people who nurtured them for half a century. Their future could be very grim.
The US must decide whether peaceful unification by stealth is acceptable.
Will Taiwan's collapse through internal subversion be in accord with the US' interest in peace and stability in East Asia? How will Japan's security be affected by the occupation of Taiwan by an ambitious PLA ever ready to project its naval and air power into the Western Pacific and beyond?
If the US wants to maintain Taiwan's de facto independent status, then it must monitor the internal political developments in Taiwan and take appropriate measures as needed.
First, let the pan-blues know the US understands the game they are playing. Apply pressure by denying US visas to those known for their avowal of allegiance to Beijing.
Second, affirm US resolve to help defend Taiwan's freedom should the PLA launch a military attack. Stop chanting the mantra of supporting the "one China" policy and non-support of Taiwan independence. The implication of the mantra is that Taiwan must sooner or later become part of China. So the people ask: Why should we purchase these expensive weapons if the US agrees with China that Taiwan's hard-won freedom must eventually be forfeited?
Third, lift the nonsensical ban on the exchange of visits between high level US and Taiwanese officials and senior military officers.
Finally, the US needs to build adequate groundwork for a rapid response to a provocation in the Taiwan Strait. This includes extensive political and military coordination with the governments of Taiwan and Japan and advance approval for access to foreign airfields and ports in the Western Pacific.
The government of Taiwan needs to build up the population's psychological defense against a PLA attack, be it overt invasion or covert subversion. A civil defense system needs to be established. The rapid mobilization of the reserve forces must be ensured through regular exercises.
In a recent survey by Larry Johnson, foreign desk editor of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 82 percent of Taiwan's youth (age 13 to 30) who were interviewed said they did not want Taiwan to become part of China. Among this group 48 percent wanted Taiwan to become totally independent even if it meant going to war with China. These findings parallel results of surveys based on larger samples among the population.
For its own survival as a viable party, the DPP needs to revert to the principle which founded the party: namely the pursuit of a Republic of Taiwan, democratic and fully independent of any PRC political control. The Chen government must abandon its suicidal policy of economic, social and cultural integration with the PRC.
The Chen government must also demonstrate by words and concrete action its determination to safeguard Taiwan's sovereignty and way of life for both the current and future generations.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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