The hostile response of US policymakers and pundits to the legislature's latest failure to pass the special defense budget should be setting off sirens that US support for Taiwan is conditional and should not be taken lightly. US citizens, regardless of their sympathy for Taiwan, will be reluctant to shed blood until Taipei demonstrates that it merits support. Taiwan's misplaced defense priorities will undermine the US security guarantee until Taiwan assumes a more active role for its own defense.
The US does not expect Taiwan to match China's military modernization efforts, but wants to see outlays that show firm resolve and slow the increasing cross-strait military imbalance.
While China has increased its official military budget by 75 percent since 2001, Taiwan has decreased total defense expenditures in real terms by 25 percent over the same period of time. Until Taiwan reverses course, the US cannot be expected to protect Taiwan's de facto sovereignty.
This is not a new twist in US foreign policy, but rather runs deep to the very founding of the US. France intervened in the US War for Independence only after the US fought Britain to a standstill at the Battle of Saratoga. The US needed to prove itself to France and establish that Americans were willing to pay in blood for their independence.
US foreign policy has continuously reflected this theme. President Harry Truman's Marshall Plan provided economic and political support only to countries willing to resist communist aggression. The Nixon Doctrine marked a shift away from fighting the war for South Vietnam and toward providing support for nations willing to bear the burdens of their security. While US citizens may be idealists seeking to promote and protect democracy, US policy is always injected with a good dose of pragmatism.
In the event of war with China, the greatest risk for Taiwan is at the immediate outbreak of hostilities. Efforts to harden civilian and military infrastructure against bombardment have just begun and the deficiencies only tempt China to choose this option. Efforts to purchase submarines and to develop an offensive deterrence capability only obscure the need for strengthening passive defenses.
If Taiwan can weather an initial attack, any US president will face huge pressure to intervene.
The US public can identify with Taiwan's arduous path toward democracy. However, Taiwan should not cross the spirit of kinship by violating another US value -- in the US, there is no such thing as a free lunch. The US will not provide for Taiwan's security without commensurate efforts by Taipei.
For those who feel that the US Taiwan Relations Act guarantees US support, they would do well to pay attention to the law's ambiguities. The act states that the US role is to "enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capability" and "maintain the capacity of the US to resist any resort to force."
The economic troubles of a nation are always trumped by immediate security concerns.
Spending 3 percent of GDP on defense has never crippled an economy -- Taiwan has budgetary room for maneuver.
The emphasis on the special budget has stymied necessary defense reform. There is much more that could be done to provide for Taiwan's defense that would be more effective than a special budget.
By addressing the deficiencies in its defense capabilities, Taiwan will look more confidently across the Strait and strengthen the US' commitment to protecting a peaceful relationship between China and Taiwan. Until then, the US is only a sympathizer and its citizens will shake their heads wondering if Taiwan is really committed to its democratic and liberal society.
These views are solely the author's and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the organization.
Peter Mattis is a graduate research fellow at Strategic Asia, the National Bureau of Asian Research.
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